南阳师范学院学报
南暘師範學院學報
남양사범학원학보
JOURNAL OF NANYANG TEACHERS COLLEGE
2011年
12期
14-17
,共4页
世博会%GM(1,1)模型%时间序列法%自相关函数%偏相关函数
世博會%GM(1,1)模型%時間序列法%自相關函數%偏相關函數
세박회%GM(1,1)모형%시간서렬법%자상관함수%편상관함수
the World Expo%GM( 1,1 ) model%time sequence method%auto correlation function%partial correlation function
2010年上海世博会是全球瞩目的盛会,它的影响涉及方方面面.本文主要以国际来沪旅游人数为主。其他各因素为辅,综合利用灰色伽(1,1)方法和时间序列法建立了预测模型,对上海世博会的影响力进行了定量评估.预测了若上海没有举办世博会,2010年1~7月国际入沪旅游人数(单位:万人)分别为53.97,56.58,58.27,59.43,60.25,60.87,61.36。构造可度量指标λ=X0-X0*/X0*,进行分析可知,世博会对上海的经济等方面产生短期的剧烈影响.
2010年上海世博會是全毬矚目的盛會,它的影響涉及方方麵麵.本文主要以國際來滬旅遊人數為主。其他各因素為輔,綜閤利用灰色伽(1,1)方法和時間序列法建立瞭預測模型,對上海世博會的影響力進行瞭定量評估.預測瞭若上海沒有舉辦世博會,2010年1~7月國際入滬旅遊人數(單位:萬人)分彆為53.97,56.58,58.27,59.43,60.25,60.87,61.36。構造可度量指標λ=X0-X0*/X0*,進行分析可知,世博會對上海的經濟等方麵產生短期的劇烈影響.
2010년상해세박회시전구촉목적성회,타적영향섭급방방면면.본문주요이국제래호여유인수위주。기타각인소위보,종합이용회색가(1,1)방법화시간서렬법건립료예측모형,대상해세박회적영향력진행료정량평고.예측료약상해몰유거판세박회,2010년1~7월국제입호여유인수(단위:만인)분별위53.97,56.58,58.27,59.43,60.25,60.87,61.36。구조가도량지표λ=X0-X0*/X0*,진행분석가지,세박회대상해적경제등방면산생단기적극렬영향.
Abstract:The 2010 Shanghai World Expo is the global event,it involves many aspects of influence. It mainly to Shanghai international tourist arrivals is given priority, the other factors are complementary, the prediction model was established by gray GM( 1,1 ) method and time sequence method. Forecasts the World Expo is not held that international tourist arrivals (unit: Ten thousand) were 53.97, 56.58, 58.27, 59.43, 60.25, 60.87, 61.36,structure the metric index λ=X0-X0*/X0*, to carry on the analysis, it is known that the World Expo in shanghai has short-term drastic effect about Shanghai economic, etc.