CAJ | 학술논문

考虑到路面性能预测中存在的大量可变性和不确定性,为使得路面性能PSI的预测结果可信且有意义,提出了一种基于分布的路面性能指标PSI预测方法.该方法建立在AASHTO路面性能预测模型基础上,把预测变量处理成具有某种概率分布的随机变量,通过蒙特卡洛数值模拟获得PSI的概率分布.基于路面结构和交通参数建立仿真模型,应用PERFORM程序得到数值计算结果.研究结果表明:交通荷载、表面层材料特性和路面初始性能是影响未来路面性能的最主要因素.在获得路面性能PSI指标的概率分布后,其他统计量如未来路面性能的均值函数和方差函数可以很容易得到.
고필도로면성능예측중존재적대량가변성화불학정성,위사득로면성능PSI적예측결과가신차유의의,제출료일충기우분포적로면성능지표PSI예측방법.해방법건립재AASHTO로면성능예측모형기출상,파예측변량처리성구유모충개솔분포적수궤변량,통과몽특잡락수치모의획득PSI적개솔분포.기우로면결구화교통삼수건립방진모형,응용PERFORM정서득도수치계산결과.연구결과표명:교통하재、표면층재료특성화로면초시성능시영향미래로면성능적최주요인소.재획득로면성능PSI지표적개솔분포후,기타통계량여미래로면성능적균치함수화방차함수가이흔용역득도.
Taking variability and uncertainty involved in performance prediction into account,in order to make the prediction reliable and meaningful, a distribution-based method is developed to predict future PSI.This method,which is based on the AASHTO pavement performance model,treats predictor variables as random variables with certain probability distributions and obtains the distribution of future PSI through the method of Monte-Carlo simulation.A computer program PERFORM using Monte Carlo simulation is developed to implement the numerical computation.Simulation results based on pavement and traffic parameters show that traffic,surface layer material property,and initial pavement performance are the most significant factors affecting pavement performance.Once the distribution of future PSI is determined,statistics such as the mean and the variance of future PSI are readily available.