CAJ | 학술논문

以油菜籽贸易政策的演变为背景,结合国际机构对油菜籽贸易的预测,研究了油菜籽贸易的决定因素,回答了2005年以来中国油菜籽进口的持续增长,特别是2009年进口激增,是偶然现象还是历史必然。结果表明,中国油料贸易政策决定了油菜籽及其制品的贸易规模和贸易结构,除此之外,中国市场和国际市场油菜籽价差、农户从事油菜生产机会成本的增加、中国农业生产的资源禀赋等3个因素决定了油菜籽及其制品的长期贸易发展趋势。
이유채자무역정책적연변위배경,결합국제궤구대유채자무역적예측,연구료유채자무역적결정인소,회답료2005년이래중국유채자진구적지속증장,특별시2009년진구격증,시우연현상환시역사필연。결과표명,중국유료무역정책결정료유채자급기제품적무역규모화무역결구,제차지외,중국시장화국제시장유채자개차、농호종사유채생산궤회성본적증가、중국농업생산적자원품부등3개인소결정료유채자급기제품적장기무역발전추세。
Having the evolution of China＇s rapeseed trade policies and the prediction of rapeseed trade growth over the next 10 years by the international agencies as background,the paper studied China＇s rapeseed trade determinants in the future,and explained the economic phenomena of China＇s rapeseed import continuous growth,especially the import surge in 2009.The results showed that China＇s trade policies on oilseed crops settled the trade quantity and trade structure of rapeseed and its products.In addition,the price differentials between domestic and international market,the increasing opportunity cost of engaging in rape production and China＇s resources endowments in agricultural sector all determined the long-term trade trend of China＇s rapeseed and its products.