干旱气象
榦旱氣象
간한기상
GANSU METEOROLOGY
2011年
3期
283-288
,共6页
中国南方%夏季降水%Z指数%REOF
中國南方%夏季降水%Z指數%REOF
중국남방%하계강수%Z지수%REOF
South China%summer precipitation%Z-index%REOF
基于1960～2009年50 a的降水资料,进行了Z指数变换,再利用降水距平场作REOF分区,并分别对各区域代表站点Z指数序列作线性趋势分析、MK分析和Morlet小波分析。结果表明：我国南方5个分区的年际及年代际波动幅度都比较明显,但都呈由干变湿的趋势。且5个典型代表站点分别在1973年,1993年,1992年,2002年和1979年发生突变,突变后UF一直呈上升趋势,总体都由干变湿,5个分区旱涝异常具有相对一致的性质。中国南方地区夏季降水具有多时间尺度振荡的特点,存在2～3 a,5～6 a的周期。
基于1960～2009年50 a的降水資料,進行瞭Z指數變換,再利用降水距平場作REOF分區,併分彆對各區域代錶站點Z指數序列作線性趨勢分析、MK分析和Morlet小波分析。結果錶明：我國南方5箇分區的年際及年代際波動幅度都比較明顯,但都呈由榦變濕的趨勢。且5箇典型代錶站點分彆在1973年,1993年,1992年,2002年和1979年髮生突變,突變後UF一直呈上升趨勢,總體都由榦變濕,5箇分區旱澇異常具有相對一緻的性質。中國南方地區夏季降水具有多時間呎度振盪的特點,存在2～3 a,5～6 a的週期。
기우1960～2009년50 a적강수자료,진행료Z지수변환,재이용강수거평장작REOF분구,병분별대각구역대표참점Z지수서렬작선성추세분석、MK분석화Morlet소파분석。결과표명：아국남방5개분구적년제급년대제파동폭도도비교명현,단도정유간변습적추세。차5개전형대표참점분별재1973년,1993년,1992년,2002년화1979년발생돌변,돌변후UF일직정상승추세,총체도유간변습,5개분구한로이상구유상대일치적성질。중국남방지구하계강수구유다시간척도진탕적특점,존재2～3 a,5～6 a적주기。
Based on summer rainfall data over 213 stations in South China from 1960 to 2009,Z index,REOF,LR,M-K and Morlet wavelet analysis methods are used to investigate variations of summer rainfall in South China.Results show that the precipitation area in summer is mainly divided into five regions by using REOF analysis and the representative stations are Yueyang,Guangzhou,Lishui,Xinyang and Chaohu,respectively.The interannual and decadal fluctuating of precipitation in five typical stations was obvious,and annual mean precipitation increased,especially in Chaohu and Xinyang station.M-K test shows that the precipitation mutation in five regions was found in 1973,1994,1992,2002,1979,respectively.After the precipitation mutation,the Z-index was increasing and presented the tendency from dry to wet in these five regions.The summer precipitation in South China had period of 2-3 years and 5-6 years.
