CAJ | 학술논문

县域是耕地保护及预警最为合理的研究尺度,综合应用土地利用规划、年度计划和农用地分等定级成果,预测耕地资源"量"与"质"的变化趋势是科学合理地保护耕地的有效手段.该文在单项指标和综合指标2个层次上,从耕地数量、稳定生产能力、易变养分的空间变化和综合4个方面构建了县域耕地保护预警体系,并对北京市顺义区进行了耕地保护预警研究.顺义区耕地保护单项指标预警结果表明,2007、2008年顺义区耕地数量出现轻警,2009、2010年则为无警;耕地稳定生产能力在2007、2009年为中警,2008年为重警,2010年为轻警;而易变养分含量变化的警情则不尽相同.综合指标预警结果表明:2007年顺义区耕地保护出现重警,2008年和2009年为中警,2010年为轻警.研究结果从预警的时间尺度和空间尺度出发,全面考虑了耕地的数量变化和质量变化,并使警情判定与土地管理和农业生产工作相衔接,是进行区域耕地保护预警研究的有效方法.
현역시경지보호급예경최위합리적연구척도,종합응용토지이용규화、년도계화화농용지분등정급성과,예측경지자원"량"여"질"적변화추세시과학합리지보호경지적유효수단.해문재단항지표화종합지표2개층차상,종경지수량、은정생산능력、역변양분적공간변화화종합4개방면구건료현역경지보호예경체계,병대북경시순의구진행료경지보호예경연구.순의구경지보호단항지표예경결과표명,2007、2008년순의구경지수량출현경경,2009、2010년칙위무경;경지은정생산능력재2007、2009년위중경,2008년위중경,2010년위경경;이역변양분함량변화적경정칙불진상동.종합지표예경결과표명:2007년순의구경지보호출현중경,2008년화2009년위중경,2010년위경경.연구결과종예경적시간척도화공간척도출발,전면고필료경지적수량변화화질량변화,병사경정판정여토지관리화농업생산공작상함접,시진행구역경지보호예경연구적유효방법.
It is the county level that is the most reasonable scale for research of arable land protection and warning. To protect arable land scientifically and rationally, prediction of the trend of its quantity and quality, with land use planning,annual plan and agricultural land classification and gradation results, is supposed to be an effective means. An early-warning study of cultivated land protection was carried out based on constructing a warning system from the aspects of farmland quantity, stability of grain yield capacity, spatial changes of the volatile nutrient and harmony degree between development and land protection, taking Shunyi District, Beijing, as study area. Among the four aspects, the fast three were early-warning types of single index, the last one was the type of an comprehensive one. The single index early-warnings results indicated that the farmland quantity changes in Shunyi District, Beijing, took on light warning in 2007 and 2008, and no warnings in 2009 and 2010; the grain yield production capacity showed middle warnings in 2007and 2009, serious warning in 2008, light warnings in 2010; and the nutrient changes differs from one another. Moreover the results of the comprehensive indices early-warning indicated a serious warning result in 2007, middle warnings in 2008 and 2009, a light one in 2010. This paper provide an efficient method to carry on the early-warning of cultivated land, which can pre-warn the quantity changes and quality changes of the cultivated land from both temporal scales and spatial scales, and it was closely connected with the practice of land resource management and agriculture production.