CAJ | 학술논문

综合考虑柑桔气候适宜性水平及其变率变化,构建柑桔的风险度模型,运用滑动建模技术对中国亚热带地区柑桔的气候风险性进行动态分析与评估.根据风险分布强度将中国亚热带地区柑桔温度、降水、日照和气候风险大致分为三类型:低风险型、中风险型和高风险型.温度风险度大致呈纬度地带性分布,除西部高山区外,由低纬向高纬风险度依次增高;降水风险度呈现亚热带中部低,北部和西部高;与降水风险度相反,日照风险度在亚热带中部高,北部和西部低;气候风险度受温度变化的主导,也大致呈现纬度地带性,呈现高纬和西部高海拔区高,低纬和东部沿海区低.柑桔气候风险在时间和空间变化上都存在着差异,近46年来,中国亚热带地区柑桔气候风险度有逐渐增加的趋势,尤其以20世纪80年代初以来增加的最快;由于全球气候变暖的影响,亚热带东部和南部风险较低的区域分布有逐渐减少的趋势,而北部和西部风险高的区域分布有进一步增大并向东部和南部扩展的可能.从中国亚热带地区柑桔减产率大于10%、20%、30%的气候风险度分布区域变动过程来看,柑桔各碱产率的气候风险度分布具有很明显的区域性和连续性,大体上由东南向西北呈增高趋势.
종합고필감길기후괄의성수평급기변솔변화,구건감길적풍험도모형,운용활동건모기술대중국아열대지구감길적기후풍험성진행동태분석여평고.근거풍험분포강도장중국아열대지구감길온도、강수、일조화기후풍험대치분위삼류형:저풍험형、중풍험형화고풍험형.온도풍험도대치정위도지대성분포,제서부고산구외,유저위향고위풍험도의차증고;강수풍험도정현아열대중부저,북부화서부고;여강수풍험도상반,일조풍험도재아열대중부고,북부화서부저;기후풍험도수온도변화적주도,야대치정현위도지대성,정현고위화서부고해발구고,저위화동부연해구저.감길기후풍험재시간화공간변화상도존재착차이,근46년래,중국아열대지구감길기후풍험도유축점증가적추세,우기이20세기80년대초이래증가적최쾌;유우전구기후변난적영향,아열대동부화남부풍험교저적구역분포유축점감소적추세,이북부화서부풍험고적구역분포유진일보증대병향동부화남부확전적가능.종중국아열대지구감길감산솔대우10%、20%、30%적기후풍험도분포구역변동과정래간,감길각감산솔적기후풍험도분포구유흔명현적구역성화련속성,대체상유동남향서북정증고추세.
Based on the citrus temperature,precipitation,sunlight and climate risk degree,the article divides subtropics of China into three types: the low risk region,the medium risk region and the high risk region.The citrus temperature risk increases with increasing latitude (except for west mountainous area of subtropics of China).The citrus precipitation risk in the central part of subtropics of China is higher than that in the northern and western parts.The distributions of citrus sunlight risk are not consistent to those of the citrus precipitation risk.The citrus climate risk is mainly influenced by temperature.There is latitudinal zonal law for the distribution of the climate risk,that is,the climate risk increases with increasing latitude.At the same time the climate risk in mountainous area is high and that in eastern plain area is low.There are differences in the temporal and spatial changes of the citrus climate.In recent 46 years,the citrus climate risk presents a gradual increasing trend in subtropics of China,especially it has been increasing fast since the 1980s.Because of the global warming,the low risk region in the eastern and southern parts has a gradual decreasing trend,however,the high risk region in the northern and western parts has an increasing trend and the high risk region has been extending eastward and southward.The article analyses the distribution of the citrus climate risk degree of reduction rates of ＞10%,＞20% and ＞30% in subtropics of China,and studies their changes in different time periods.Results show that the risk is increasing from southeast to northwest.