CAJ | 학술논문

环境承载力是区域环境系统结构与区域社会经济活动适宜程度的一种表示.环境承载研究很重要.为使陕西省经济发展与环境保护相协调,优化陕西省环境承载能力,采用定性和定量相结合的方法,通过建立系统动力学模型,仿真陕西省中长期(2007-2020年)不同发展策略下各指标数值,并采用综合评价方法计算不同策略下环境承载力的值,最终得出承载状态(超载、满载、可载).仿真结果表明基于系统动力学的环境承载力模型能够动态仿真现实的环境承载力;研究结果可为陕西省发展规划的制定提供一定的理论依据.
배경승재력시구역배경계통결구여구역사회경제활동괄의정도적일충표시.배경승재연구흔중요.위사합서성경제발전여배경보호상협조,우화합서성배경승재능력,채용정성화정량상결합적방법,통과건립계통동역학모형,방진합서성중장기(2007-2020년)불동발전책략하각지표수치,병채용종합평개방법계산불동책략하배경승재력적치,최종득출승재상태(초재、만재、가재).방진결과표명기우계통동역학적배경승재력모형능구동태방진현실적배경승재력;연구결과가위합서성발전규화적제정제공일정적이론의거.
Environmental bearing capacity is an appropriate degree of the structure of environment system and socio-economic activities.In order to harmonize the economic development and environmental protection and optimize the carrying capacity of the environment in Shaanxi Province,this research adopts a combination of stable and rational methods,through building models based on systematic dynamics,simulate a series of indexes of different developing tactics for Shannxi Province in mid-long term(2007-2020),to measure the capability of each tactic in different solutions.An estimation is made based on synthesis of the data,and it concludes the state of capability(over loading,full,vacancy).The simulation results show that the model based on SD of the environmental carrying capacity agree with actual stale.The results provide a theoretical basis for the development of Shanxi Province plans.