南水北调与水利科技
南水北調與水利科技
남수북조여수리과기
SOUTH-TO-NORTH WATER
2010年
2期
49-52
,共4页
吕爱锋%贾绍凤%王素慧%燕华云%杨贵林
呂愛鋒%賈紹鳳%王素慧%燕華雲%楊貴林
려애봉%가소봉%왕소혜%연화운%양귀림
三江源%径流%ENSO%PDO
三江源%徑流%ENSO%PDO
삼강원%경류%ENSO%PDO
Sanjiangyuan%Streamflow%ENSO%PDO
三江源地区是长江、黄河以及澜沧江的发源地.开展该地区水资源预测研究对于该区生态环境保护以及下游水资源合理规划与调配都具有重要意义.现对三江源地区5个主要水文站1957年-2005年的月径流序列,通过统计相关分析,探讨三江源地区径流变化、融雪径流时间变化与ENSO(El Nino-Southem Oscilhtion)、PDO(PacificDeeadal Oscillation)等大尺度气候信号月/月组合值的关系.研究表明,三江源的香达站(r=0.3,P=0.048)、直门达站(r=0.324,P=0.023)与唐乃亥站(r=0.367,P=0.009)年径流量与水文年前一年8月、9月SOI之和值在95%置信水平上存在正相关关系.香达站(r=-0.359,P=0.017)、唐乃亥站(r=-0.313,P=0.029)以及直门达站(r=-0.314,P=0.028)的月径流与相应前8个月的Nino 3.4值呈显著负相关.三江源地区的5个水文站点的月径流都与相应的前第9个月的PDO值呈负相关,且都在95%置信水平上显著.三江源地区融雪径流时间与水文年前一年8月的PDO呈负相关,其中香达站(r=-0.359,P=0.017)、唐乃亥站(r=-0.313,p=0.029)以及直门达站(r=-0.314,P=0.028)表现出了强的负相关,且在95%置信水平上显著.此外,黄河源吉迈站(r=0.347,P=0.014)、唐乃亥站(r=0.312,P=0.029)融雪径流时间与水文年前一年5月的SOI值有显著正相关.
三江源地區是長江、黃河以及瀾滄江的髮源地.開展該地區水資源預測研究對于該區生態環境保護以及下遊水資源閤理規劃與調配都具有重要意義.現對三江源地區5箇主要水文站1957年-2005年的月徑流序列,通過統計相關分析,探討三江源地區徑流變化、融雪徑流時間變化與ENSO(El Nino-Southem Oscilhtion)、PDO(PacificDeeadal Oscillation)等大呎度氣候信號月/月組閤值的關繫.研究錶明,三江源的香達站(r=0.3,P=0.048)、直門達站(r=0.324,P=0.023)與唐迺亥站(r=0.367,P=0.009)年徑流量與水文年前一年8月、9月SOI之和值在95%置信水平上存在正相關關繫.香達站(r=-0.359,P=0.017)、唐迺亥站(r=-0.313,P=0.029)以及直門達站(r=-0.314,P=0.028)的月徑流與相應前8箇月的Nino 3.4值呈顯著負相關.三江源地區的5箇水文站點的月徑流都與相應的前第9箇月的PDO值呈負相關,且都在95%置信水平上顯著.三江源地區融雪徑流時間與水文年前一年8月的PDO呈負相關,其中香達站(r=-0.359,P=0.017)、唐迺亥站(r=-0.313,p=0.029)以及直門達站(r=-0.314,P=0.028)錶現齣瞭彊的負相關,且在95%置信水平上顯著.此外,黃河源吉邁站(r=0.347,P=0.014)、唐迺亥站(r=0.312,P=0.029)融雪徑流時間與水文年前一年5月的SOI值有顯著正相關.
삼강원지구시장강、황하이급란창강적발원지.개전해지구수자원예측연구대우해구생태배경보호이급하유수자원합리규화여조배도구유중요의의.현대삼강원지구5개주요수문참1957년-2005년적월경류서렬,통과통계상관분석,탐토삼강원지구경류변화、융설경류시간변화여ENSO(El Nino-Southem Oscilhtion)、PDO(PacificDeeadal Oscillation)등대척도기후신호월/월조합치적관계.연구표명,삼강원적향체참(r=0.3,P=0.048)、직문체참(r=0.324,P=0.023)여당내해참(r=0.367,P=0.009)년경류량여수문년전일년8월、9월SOI지화치재95%치신수평상존재정상관관계.향체참(r=-0.359,P=0.017)、당내해참(r=-0.313,P=0.029)이급직문체참(r=-0.314,P=0.028)적월경류여상응전8개월적Nino 3.4치정현저부상관.삼강원지구적5개수문참점적월경류도여상응적전제9개월적PDO치정부상관,차도재95%치신수평상현저.삼강원지구융설경류시간여수문년전일년8월적PDO정부상관,기중향체참(r=-0.359,P=0.017)、당내해참(r=-0.313,p=0.029)이급직문체참(r=-0.314,P=0.028)표현출료강적부상관,차재95%치신수평상현저.차외,황하원길매참(r=0.347,P=0.014)、당내해참(r=0.312,P=0.029)융설경류시간여수문년전일년5월적SOI치유현저정상관.
Sanjiangyuan is the source regions of the Yangtze River, Yellow River and Lancang River.Reliable forecasting of the water resources in Sanjiangyuan is valuable for local ecological protection as well as rational planning and allocation of water resources in its lower reaches.Based on the monthly stream.flow of five major hydrological stations in Sanjiangyuan, this paper quantified the relationships between variability of streamflow, snowrnelt runoff timing and activities of ENSO and PDO.Statistic analysis shows that annual streamflow in Sanjiangyuan was significantly correlated with the sum of SOI of August and September in previous year at 95% confidance level.(r = 0.3, P = 0.048 for Xiangda, r = 0.324, P =0.023for Zhimenda and r = 0.367, P = 0.009 for Tanguaihai.Monthly streamflow of Xiangda Station(r =- 0.359, P = 0.017), Tangnaihai Station(r =- 0.313, P = 0.029), and Zhimenda Station(r =- 0.314, P = 0.028) were negatively correlated with the monthly Nino3.4 values of eight months before the streamflow at 95% confidence level.Significant correlations were also identified between monthly streamflow and the PDO of pre-nine months.The snowmelt runoff timing in Sanjiangyuan were negative correlation with the PDO values in former August at 95% confidence level- It was also found that snowmelt runoff timing of Jimai and Tanguaihai were significantly correlated with May's SOI of the last year.The findings in this study would provide a theoretical basis for forecasting water resources in Sanjiangyuan.
