CAJ | 학술논문

文章通过对中国潜在经济增长率和经济周期的研究综述，详细分析了1978年——2010年中国经济增长及波动状况。以增长率周期波动的“谷——谷”法来度量和划分，中国经济大致经历了四次周期性波动，且经济周期的特征逐渐向高谷底，低峰值，长扩张，短收缩转变，而近年来主动、适时的宏观调控政策也对该周期新特征的形成产生了重要影响。
문장통과대중국잠재경제증장솔화경제주기적연구종술，상세분석료1978년——2010년중국경제증장급파동상황。이증장솔주기파동적“곡——곡”법래도량화화분，중국경제대치경력료사차주기성파동，차경제주기적특정축점향고곡저，저봉치，장확장，단수축전변，이근년래주동、괄시적굉관조공정책야대해주기신특정적형성산생료중요영향。
This paper based on China＇s economic growth potential and economic cycle research review, detailed analysis of the China economic growth and fluctuation from 1978 to 2009. To measure with the method of ＂valley to valley＂ of growth cycle, China＇s economy has experienced four cyclical fluctuations, and the economic cycle gradually to the characteristics of high-bottom, low-peak, long-expansion and short- contraction, in which the recently active macrocontrol policy had played a major impact.