CAJ | 학술논문

采用最优加权方法,建立了基于灰色预测模型、灰色马尔科夫预测模型及逻辑斯蒂预测模型的组合模型;并根据东北地区1949-2008年粮食产量资料,利用组合模型预测了该地区未来10年的粮食产量.结果得到,灰色预测、马尔科夫预测、逻辑斯蒂预测和组合预测方法的预测粮食产量的平均相对百分误差分别为:12.74%,3.02%,13.29%,2.87%,结果证明组合预测模型可以较好地提高粮食产量的预测精度.通过组合模型预测结果表明,到2015年东北地区的粮食产量可以达到1.25亿t,可以完成该地区增产150亿kg粮食的任务,到2018年,粮食产量预计可达1.38亿t,东北地区增粮潜力巨大.
채용최우가권방법,건립료기우회색예측모형、회색마이과부예측모형급라집사체예측모형적조합모형;병근거동북지구1949-2008년양식산량자료,이용조합모형예측료해지구미래10년적양식산량.결과득도,회색예측、마이과부예측、라집사체예측화조합예측방법적예측양식산량적평균상대백분오차분별위:12.74%,3.02%,13.29%,2.87%,결과증명조합예측모형가이교호지제고양식산량적예측정도.통과조합모형예측결과표명,도2015년동북지구적양식산량가이체도1.25억t,가이완성해지구증산150억kg양식적임무,도2018년,양식산량예계가체1.38억t,동북지구증량잠력거대.
This paper built the combinatorial predicting model of grey predicting model, grey markova transition matrix model, logistic predicting model by the optimal weighted method. The coupling model was also applied to predict the food production of northeaster China in the next ten years, based on the food production data from year 1949 to 2008. The studied results showed that the mean relative errors of predicted food production of grey predicting model, grey-markova transition matrix model, logistic predicting model, combinatorial predicting model were 12.74% ,3.02% , 13.29% ,2. 87% , The combinatorial predicting model could improve the precision of predicting food production. The food production of northeaster China will arrive at 0. 125 billion and 0. 138 billion ton in year of 2015 and 2018, predicted by combinatorial predicting model, which could finish the task increasing 30 million ton food and showed great potential of increasing food production.