CAJ | 학술논문

利用北京地区1985～2008年逐日降水数据资料,运用IPCC极端天气气候事件指标确定方法计算得到北京地区暴雨天气指标在10.4～38.8mm之间波动,暴雨气候指标为日降水量≥27.5 mm.以暴雨天气指标、暴雨气候指标和国家暴雨标准计算历年的暴雨日数和暴雨量,统计分析年降雨日数、暴雨日数和年降水量和暴雨量与作物洪涝受灾率的相关关系,得出年降雨日数和暴雨日数都不能真实地反映作物洪涝受灾率,而年降水量和暴雨量与作物洪涝受灾率则具有明显的线性正相关关系.以区域暴雨气候指标统计的暴雨量与作物洪涝受灾率相关程度最高,笔者建议以暴雨量来预测评估洪涝灾害时,采用区域暴雨气候指标.
이용북경지구1985～2008년축일강수수거자료,운용IPCC겁단천기기후사건지표학정방법계산득도북경지구폭우천기지표재10.4～38.8mm지간파동,폭우기후지표위일강수량≥27.5 mm.이폭우천기지표、폭우기후지표화국가폭우표준계산력년적폭우일수화폭우량,통계분석년강우일수、폭우일수화년강수량화폭우량여작물홍로수재솔적상관관계,득출년강우일수화폭우일수도불능진실지반영작물홍로수재솔,이년강수량화폭우량여작물홍로수재솔칙구유명현적선성정상관관계.이구역폭우기후지표통계적폭우량여작물홍로수재솔상관정도최고,필자건의이폭우량래예측평고홍로재해시,채용구역폭우기후지표.
According to the daily precipitation data in Beijing area from 1985 to 2008, rainstorm weather index ( 10.4 -38.8 mm) and climate index (daily precipitation ≥27.5 mm) in Beijing area were obtained by using the determination method of extreme climate event index recommended by IPCC. Based on rainstorm weather index, rainstorm climate index and national rainstorm standard, the number of rainstorm days and rainfall amount in past years were calculated, and the correlation of annual number of rainy days, rainstorm days, precipitation and rainstorm amount with the flood disaster ratio of crop was analyzed, and the results showed that annual number of rainy days and rainstorm days couldn't reflect flood disaster ratio of crop truly, while annual precipitation and rainstorm amount had obvious linear positive correlation with the flood disaster ratio of crop. In addition, the correlation degree between rainstorm amount calculated by regional climate index and flood disaster ratio of crop was the highest, so it was suggested that rainstorm amount calculated by regional rainstorm climate index could be used to predict and evaluate flood disaster.