CAJ | 학술논문

与传统的能源发电投资相比,风电投资具有更大的投资风险.在目前的技术水平下,风电的大力发展离不开国家的政策扶持.无论对风电投资者而言,还是对风电投资政策制定者而言,均迫切需要一个可将风险量化的投资辅助决策工具.基于实物期权理论,文中建立了适用于中国风电投资环境的风电项目投资决策模型.该模型考虑了风电上网电价的不确定性、风电场投资及运行成本、投资政策、投资时机等因素.算例分析表明该模型可为投资者选择合适的投资时机提供决策参考,另外还可作为政策制定者制定合理投资政策的量化分析工具.
여전통적능원발전투자상비,풍전투자구유경대적투자풍험.재목전적기술수평하,풍전적대력발전리불개국가적정책부지.무론대풍전투자자이언,환시대풍전투자정책제정자이언,균박절수요일개가장풍험양화적투자보조결책공구.기우실물기권이론,문중건립료괄용우중국풍전투자배경적풍전항목투자결책모형.해모형고필료풍전상망전개적불학정성、풍전장투자급운행성본、투자정책、투자시궤등인소.산례분석표명해모형가위투자자선택합괄적투자시궤제공결책삼고,령외환가작위정책제정자제정합리투자정책적양화분석공구.
The investment in the wind power faces more risks than in conventional generation.Currently,the rapid development of wind power still depends on the government support. Both investors and policy-makers urgently need a decision making support tool to quantify the investment risks.Based on the real options theory,this paper develops a decision-making model for the wind power investment in China, which considers various influential factors on the decision such as the uncertainty of electricity prices,Investment and operation costs,investment policies and investment time etc.Simulation results indicate that the proposed model can be used by investors to choose the appropriate time to invest and also by policy makers to make appropriate policies.