中华预防医学杂志
中華預防醫學雜誌
중화예방의학잡지
CHINESE JOURNAL OF
2012年
7期
598-603
,共6页
代珍%郑荣寿%邹小农%张思维%曾红梅%李霓%陈万青
代珍%鄭榮壽%鄒小農%張思維%曾紅梅%李霓%陳萬青
대진%정영수%추소농%장사유%증홍매%리예%진만청
结直肠肿瘤%发病率%贝叶斯定理%预测
結直腸腫瘤%髮病率%貝葉斯定理%預測
결직장종류%발병솔%패협사정리%예측
Colorectal neoplasms%Incidence%Bayes theorem%Forecasting
目的 利用1998-2007年中国肿瘤登记发病数据对结直肠癌的发病趋势进行分析,并对2008-2015年中国结直肠癌发病情况进行预测.方法 从全国肿瘤登记中心数据库中提取1998-2007年结直肠癌发病数据,共111 281例,覆盖人口446 734 668人年.计算地区别和性别年度结直肠癌发病率,采用世界人口年龄结构计算标化发病率.应用JoinPoint软件对发病率变化趋势进行分析,计算年度变化率(APC值)；利用年龄-时期-队列的贝叶斯模型对中国1998-2007年结直肠癌发病趋势进行拟合,预测2008-2015年结直肠癌发病情况.结果 1998-2007年,全国肿瘤登记地区结直肠癌发病率为24.91/10万(111 281/446 734 668),标化发病率为17.67/10万；男性发病率为26.50/10万(60 015/226 508 545),标化发病率为19.90/10万；女性发病率为23.28/10万(51 266/220 226 123),标化发病率为15.73/10万.城市登记地区男性结直肠癌发病率从1998年的23.29/10万(2617/11 237 967)上升至2007年的37.84/10万(8534/22 551 353),女性发病率从1998年的21.75/10万(2357/10 838 355)上升至2007年的31.34/10万(6913/22 057 787)；农村登记地区男性女性发病率分别从1998年的10.36/10万(448/4 323 628)和8.86/10万(372/4 197 806)上升至2007年的16.80/10万(1290/7 677 484)和13.00/10万(978/7 522 690).10年间,我国城乡人群结直肠癌发病率均呈上升趋势,其中城市男性APC值为5.5％,女性为4.O％；农村男性APC值为6.0％,女性为4.3％.调整年龄结构后,上升速度变缓,城市男性、城市女性和农村女性分别以每年3.7％、2.5％和2.3％的速度增长,农村男性的标化发病率在2004年出现拐点,以每年8.4％的速度加速上升.贝叶斯模型预测,2015年我国结直肠癌发病率城市男性为33.92/10万(12.5万例),城市女性为27.13/10万(9.3万例),农村男性为13.61/10万(4.8万例),农村女性为13.68/10万(4.5万例).结论 我国结直肠癌发病率呈逐年升高趋势,预计我国结直肠癌新发病例仍将逐年增多.
目的 利用1998-2007年中國腫瘤登記髮病數據對結直腸癌的髮病趨勢進行分析,併對2008-2015年中國結直腸癌髮病情況進行預測.方法 從全國腫瘤登記中心數據庫中提取1998-2007年結直腸癌髮病數據,共111 281例,覆蓋人口446 734 668人年.計算地區彆和性彆年度結直腸癌髮病率,採用世界人口年齡結構計算標化髮病率.應用JoinPoint軟件對髮病率變化趨勢進行分析,計算年度變化率(APC值)；利用年齡-時期-隊列的貝葉斯模型對中國1998-2007年結直腸癌髮病趨勢進行擬閤,預測2008-2015年結直腸癌髮病情況.結果 1998-2007年,全國腫瘤登記地區結直腸癌髮病率為24.91/10萬(111 281/446 734 668),標化髮病率為17.67/10萬；男性髮病率為26.50/10萬(60 015/226 508 545),標化髮病率為19.90/10萬；女性髮病率為23.28/10萬(51 266/220 226 123),標化髮病率為15.73/10萬.城市登記地區男性結直腸癌髮病率從1998年的23.29/10萬(2617/11 237 967)上升至2007年的37.84/10萬(8534/22 551 353),女性髮病率從1998年的21.75/10萬(2357/10 838 355)上升至2007年的31.34/10萬(6913/22 057 787)；農村登記地區男性女性髮病率分彆從1998年的10.36/10萬(448/4 323 628)和8.86/10萬(372/4 197 806)上升至2007年的16.80/10萬(1290/7 677 484)和13.00/10萬(978/7 522 690).10年間,我國城鄉人群結直腸癌髮病率均呈上升趨勢,其中城市男性APC值為5.5％,女性為4.O％；農村男性APC值為6.0％,女性為4.3％.調整年齡結構後,上升速度變緩,城市男性、城市女性和農村女性分彆以每年3.7％、2.5％和2.3％的速度增長,農村男性的標化髮病率在2004年齣現枴點,以每年8.4％的速度加速上升.貝葉斯模型預測,2015年我國結直腸癌髮病率城市男性為33.92/10萬(12.5萬例),城市女性為27.13/10萬(9.3萬例),農村男性為13.61/10萬(4.8萬例),農村女性為13.68/10萬(4.5萬例).結論 我國結直腸癌髮病率呈逐年升高趨勢,預計我國結直腸癌新髮病例仍將逐年增多.
목적 이용1998-2007년중국종류등기발병수거대결직장암적발병추세진행분석,병대2008-2015년중국결직장암발병정황진행예측.방법 종전국종류등기중심수거고중제취1998-2007년결직장암발병수거,공111 281례,복개인구446 734 668인년.계산지구별화성별년도결직장암발병솔,채용세계인구년령결구계산표화발병솔.응용JoinPoint연건대발병솔변화추세진행분석,계산년도변화솔(APC치)；이용년령-시기-대렬적패협사모형대중국1998-2007년결직장암발병추세진행의합,예측2008-2015년결직장암발병정황.결과 1998-2007년,전국종류등기지구결직장암발병솔위24.91/10만(111 281/446 734 668),표화발병솔위17.67/10만；남성발병솔위26.50/10만(60 015/226 508 545),표화발병솔위19.90/10만；녀성발병솔위23.28/10만(51 266/220 226 123),표화발병솔위15.73/10만.성시등기지구남성결직장암발병솔종1998년적23.29/10만(2617/11 237 967)상승지2007년적37.84/10만(8534/22 551 353),녀성발병솔종1998년적21.75/10만(2357/10 838 355)상승지2007년적31.34/10만(6913/22 057 787)；농촌등기지구남성녀성발병솔분별종1998년적10.36/10만(448/4 323 628)화8.86/10만(372/4 197 806)상승지2007년적16.80/10만(1290/7 677 484)화13.00/10만(978/7 522 690).10년간,아국성향인군결직장암발병솔균정상승추세,기중성시남성APC치위5.5％,녀성위4.O％；농촌남성APC치위6.0％,녀성위4.3％.조정년령결구후,상승속도변완,성시남성、성시녀성화농촌녀성분별이매년3.7％、2.5％화2.3％적속도증장,농촌남성적표화발병솔재2004년출현괴점,이매년8.4％적속도가속상승.패협사모형예측,2015년아국결직장암발병솔성시남성위33.92/10만(12.5만례),성시녀성위27.13/10만(9.3만례),농촌남성위13.61/10만(4.8만례),농촌녀성위13.68/10만(4.5만례).결론 아국결직장암발병솔정축년승고추세,예계아국결직장암신발병례잉장축년증다.
Objective Based on the data from National Cancer Registry between 1998 and 2007,to analyze the colorectal cancer incidence trend in China,and further to predict its incidence between 2008 and 2015.Methods We picked up the incidence data of 111 281 cases of colorectal cancer in total from National Central Cancer Registry Database between 1998 and 2007,covering 446 734 668 person-year.The annual incidence rate of colorectal cancer both by area and gender were calculated; while the age standardized rate (ASR) was standardized by world's population age structure.The incidence trend was analyzed and the annual percentage change (APC) was calculated by JoinPoint software.Age-Period-Cohort Bayesian Model was applied to fit the colorectal cancer incidence trend in China between 1998 and 2007;and further to predict its incidence between 2008 and 2015.Results From 1998 to 2007,the colorectal cancer registered incidence was 24.91/100 000 ( 111 281/446 734 668),with the ASR at 17.67/100 000.The incidence in male population was 26.50/100 000 (60 015/226 508 545 ),with ASR at 19.90/100 000;and the incidence in female was 23.28/100 000 (51 266/220 226 123),with ASR at 15.73/100 000.In urban area,the male incidence rose from 23.29/100 000 (2617/11 237 967 ) in 1998 to 37.84/100 000 (8534/22 551 353) in 2007; while the female incidence increased from 21.75/100 000(2357/10838 355) to 31.34/100 000 (6913/22 057 787).And in rural areas,the male and female incidences rose from 10.36/100 000 (448/4 323 628) and 8.86/100 000 (372/4 197 806) in 1998 to 16.80/100 000 (1290/7 677 484) and 13.00/100 000 (978/7 522 690 ) in 2007 respectively.In this decade,the coiorectal cancer incidence has increased both in urban and rural areas.In urban area,the male APC value was 5.5％ and the female APC value was 4.0％ ; while in rural area,the male and female APC values were 6.0％ and 4.3％ respectively.After adjusted by age structure,the uptrend became gently; with the urban male and urban female APC values separately increased by 3.7％,2.5％ and 2.3％.The rural male APC value rocketed up by 8.4％ after its inflection point in 2004.The Bayesian model predicted that the male and female colorectal cancer incidences would separately reach 33.92/100 000 ( 125 thousand cases) and 27.13/100 000 (93 thousand cases) in urban areas; and 13.61/100 000 (48 thousand cases)and 13.68/100 000 (45 thousand cases) in rural areas by year 2015.Conclusion The colorectal cancer incidence in China has been increasing annually ; and it will continue to rise in the next years.
