CAJ | 학술논문

随着我国农业经济的快速增长,能源消耗和二氧化碳排放数量急剧增加。本文对我国农业1981～2008年的二氧化碳排放量进行了估算,在此基础上,利用EKC模型对碳排放与农业经济增长之间的关系进行分析,并利用Kaya方法对碳排放变化进行因素分解。结果表明,碳排放与农业经济增长之间存在非均衡的＂N＂型曲线关系。因素分解显示,经济增长是农业碳排放最主要的驱动因素,技术进步对碳减排有较强的促进作用但具有一定随机性,能源消费结构和人口规模对碳排放影响不明显。基于上述,提出相关建议。
수착아국농업경제적쾌속증장,능원소모화이양화탄배방수량급극증가。본문대아국농업1981～2008년적이양화탄배방량진행료고산,재차기출상,이용EKC모형대탄배방여농업경제증장지간적관계진행분석,병이용Kaya방법대탄배방변화진행인소분해。결과표명,탄배방여농업경제증장지간존재비균형적＂N＂형곡선관계。인소분해현시,경제증장시농업탄배방최주요적구동인소,기술진보대탄감배유교강적촉진작용단구유일정수궤성,능원소비결구화인구규모대탄배방영향불명현。기우상술,제출상관건의。
With the rapid growth of China＇s agricultural economy,energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions increase dramatically.In this paper,China＇s agricultural carbon dioxide emissions from 1981-2007 was calculated,on this basis,using EKC model,the relationship between carbon emissions and agricultural economic growth was analyzed,and the carbon emissions changes were decomposed using Kaya method.The results showed that,carbon emissions and agricultural economic growth showed non-equilibrium ＂N＂ shaped curve relationship.Factor decomposition showed that,economic growth was the most important driven factor of agriculture carbon emissions,technological progress had a strong role to reduce carbon emissions but with certain randomness,the energy consumption structure and population size had no obvious effects on carbon emissions.Based on the above,this paper presented relevant recommendations.