电子科技大学学报：社会科学版
電子科技大學學報：社會科學版
전자과기대학학보：사회과학판
Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China（Social Sciences Edition）
2011年
4期
32-37
,共6页
系统动力学模型%固有周期%计量模型%误差修正模型
繫統動力學模型%固有週期%計量模型%誤差脩正模型
계통동역학모형%고유주기%계량모형%오차수정모형
system dynamics model%inherent cycle%econometric model%error-correction model
构建了一个房地产市场的系统动力学模型,由此得到了一个以房价为指示变量的描述房地产周期波动的数学方程,在此基础上利用时间序列理论对我国房地产市场的周期波动做了实证研究。结果表明,我国房地产市场系统内在的波动呈现出单一固有周期的特点,该周期的长度为3.4年,并提出了我国房地产市场的内部驱动过程和内部抑制过程的概念,分析了它们的特点及其与宏观调控房地产市场之间的联系。
構建瞭一箇房地產市場的繫統動力學模型,由此得到瞭一箇以房價為指示變量的描述房地產週期波動的數學方程,在此基礎上利用時間序列理論對我國房地產市場的週期波動做瞭實證研究。結果錶明,我國房地產市場繫統內在的波動呈現齣單一固有週期的特點,該週期的長度為3.4年,併提齣瞭我國房地產市場的內部驅動過程和內部抑製過程的概唸,分析瞭它們的特點及其與宏觀調控房地產市場之間的聯繫。
구건료일개방지산시장적계통동역학모형,유차득도료일개이방개위지시변량적묘술방지산주기파동적수학방정,재차기출상이용시간서렬이론대아국방지산시장적주기파동주료실증연구。결과표명,아국방지산시장계통내재적파동정현출단일고유주기적특점,해주기적장도위3.4년,병제출료아국방지산시장적내부구동과정화내부억제과정적개념,분석료타문적특점급기여굉관조공방지산시장지간적련계。
This paper founds a system dynamics model of real estate market,and then gets a mathematic equation that describes the real estate cycle using real estate price as indicator variable.The real estate cycle of china is studied by time series theory on the basis of this equation.Our study shows that there is only one inherent cycle in Chinese real estate market and its length is 3.4 years.The concept of the inherent drive process and the inherent restrain process of Chinese real estate market are put forward and their features are analyzed.The relation of the two processes and the macro-control policies for real estate market are also analyzed.
