CAJ | 학술논문

近年来,土地利用变化模拟模型成为GLP的研究热点.大城市边缘区土地利用因变化剧烈而特殊,一直都是LUCC研究的重点领域.本研究采用国际前沿的土地利用变化及其影响空间建模方法——CLUE-S模型,基于GIS分析和统计分析,以北京市昌平区为例,运用1996年和2004年土地利用数据,构建CLUE-S模型,对2007-2015年不同土地利用政策情景下土地利用变化进行模拟,得到2010年和2015年的土地利用模拟图.结果表明:(1)专门针对中小尺度区域的CLUE-S模型能够对区域内的土地利用变化进行较好的模拟和预测,其中对分布相对集中的林地和建设用地的模拟效果相对较好,而对比较分散的园地、耕地和城市绿地的模拟效果相对较差;(2)在Markov情景下,建设用地的扩张最为明显;粮食安全情景下,山前平原区质量比较好的耕地没有转换为建设用地;而生态安全情景下,林地得到比较好的保护,并且林地的增加在靠近城区和高速公路的两侧最为明显.本研究可为研究区土地利用规划修编和土地可持续性管理提供科学依据.
근년래,토지이용변화모의모형성위GLP적연구열점.대성시변연구토지이용인변화극렬이특수,일직도시LUCC연구적중점영역.본연구채용국제전연적토지이용변화급기영향공간건모방법——CLUE-S모형,기우GIS분석화통계분석,이북경시창평구위례,운용1996년화2004년토지이용수거,구건CLUE-S모형,대2007-2015년불동토지이용정책정경하토지이용변화진행모의,득도2010년화2015년적토지이용모의도.결과표명:(1)전문침대중소척도구역적CLUE-S모형능구대구역내적토지이용변화진행교호적모의화예측,기중대분포상대집중적임지화건설용지적모의효과상대교호,이대비교분산적완지、경지화성시록지적모의효과상대교차;(2)재Markov정경하,건설용지적확장최위명현;양식안전정경하,산전평원구질량비교호적경지몰유전환위건설용지;이생태안전정경하,임지득도비교호적보호,병차임지적증가재고근성구화고속공로적량측최위명현.본연구가위연구구토지이용규화수편화토지가지속성관리제공과학의거.
In recent years, research on simulating model for land use change has become a hot topic. The land use change on the edge of metropolis is undoubtedly selected as the hot field of LUCC research for its intense and representative change. Based on GIS analysis, statistic analysis, land use data within Changping district in Beijing in year 1996 and 2006, we utilized CLUE-S model, an advanced land use change simulation and spatial modeling framework, to simulate the land use from year 2007 to 2015 under different-orientation land use policy .The following conclusions were obtained: (1) The CLUE-S model was appropriate to simulate and predict land use conversion in area of medium and small scale, and it was more suitable for the simulation and prediction of forest and construction relatively concentrated areas than the area scatteredly distributed with garden, agricultural and urban green land.(2) Under the Markov scenario , the expansion of construction land is most obvious; under the food safety scenario, the agricultural land with high quality on the plains in front of mountain will not be converted into construction land; and under the safety of ecology, forest land will be well protected. In addition, the expansion of forest land will first occur either on the edge of urban area or beside the expressways. All in all, this paper is meaningful to the Land Use Plan Modification and sustainable management of land use.