CAJ | 학술논문

本文研究了湘潭汛期（4～9月）洪涝与南方涛动指数（SOI）和厄尔尼诺（El Nino）事件的遥相关联系。结果表明，南方涛动指数异常偏负（弱）以及厄尔尼诺事件的滞后影响对湘潭汛期洪涝的短期气候预报有很好的指示性。在统计分析的基础上，我们建立了日常业务应用的湘潭汛期洪涝预报物理模型。
본문연구료상담신기（4～9월）홍로여남방도동지수（SOI）화액이니낙（El Nino）사건적요상관련계。결과표명，남방도동지수이상편부（약）이급액이니낙사건적체후영향대상담신기홍로적단기기후예보유흔호적지시성。재통계분석적기출상，아문건립료일상업무응용적상담신기홍로예보물리모형。
The telecomection between flooding in Xiangtan in period of Apr～Sep and SOI,El Nino was studied. The results showed that,anomalously small(weak) SOI and the lag effect of El Nino are good indications to the short-term climate prediction of Xiangtan flooding in flood period.On the basis of statistical analysis, we established a physical model for operational flooding prediction in the flood period in Xiangtan.