CAJ | 학술논문

模型模拟是生态学中的重要方法,特别是当实验不可进行时.在不同预案下基于模型的土地利用预测对于土地利用规划和政策制定具有十分重要意义.然而,很多研究没有对模型在研究区的时间尺度预测能力加以分析,从而可能导致模拟结果的不可靠.以岷江上游地区为例,采用Kappa指数系列对CLUE-S模型在研究区的时间尺度预测能力进行研究.结果表明CLUE-S模型在岷江上游地区时间尺度上的最大预测能力为22a,超过时间预测能力的预测结果不可靠.研究为土地利用模型模拟时间尺度确定提供了一种有效的方法.
모형모의시생태학중적중요방법,특별시당실험불가진행시.재불동예안하기우모형적토지이용예측대우토지이용규화화정책제정구유십분중요의의.연이,흔다연구몰유대모형재연구구적시간척도예측능력가이분석,종이가능도치모의결과적불가고.이민강상유지구위례,채용Kappa지수계렬대CLUE-S모형재연구구적시간척도예측능력진행연구.결과표명CLUE-S모형재민강상유지구시간척도상적최대예측능력위22a,초과시간예측능력적예측결과불가고.연구위토지이용모형모의시간척도학정제공료일충유효적방법.
Model simulation is an important approach in ecological studies when actual field experiments are unfeasible. Predicting future land use under different scenarios using land use models is necessary to assist land use planning and policy making. However, many studies failed to analyze the predicting ability in temporal scales, which may have incorrect simulation results. This study investigates the temporal predicting ability of a land use model (CLUE-S) based on kappa coefficient in the upper reach of Minjiang River. Our results showed that CLUE-S can be used to predict up to 22 years and beyond which the prediction results may become unreliable. Our study provides a usable approach in examining temporal variations in land use models.