干旱地区农业研究
榦旱地區農業研究
간한지구농업연구
AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH IN THE ARID AREAS
2010年
1期
237-242
,共6页
胡利平%裴古娥%姚延锋%安晶%刘晓强
鬍利平%裴古娥%姚延鋒%安晶%劉曉彊
호리평%배고아%요연봉%안정%류효강
天水%苹果%发育阶段%模拟模型
天水%蘋果%髮育階段%模擬模型
천수%평과%발육계단%모의모형
Tianshui%apple%physiological development time%simulation model
以苹果的发育生理生态过程为基础,以生理发育时间为尺度,利用天水河谷区麦积试验点的数据,建立了苹果发育模拟模型,并用渭北区秦安和关山区清水点观测数据对模型进行了检验.结果表明,模型能较好地预测各个发育阶段(叶芽膨大期、叶芽开放期、展叶盛期、开花盛期、果实成熟期、叶变色始期)的出现时间和持续日数.模型对苹果各个生育时期的绝对预测误差一般小于7 d,模拟值与观测值的回归估计标准误差(RMSE)在到达叶芽开放期、展叶盛期、开花盛期、果实成熟期、叶变色始期等生育时期时分别为2.4、0.9、2.7、4.0、4.0 d; 各个发育阶段持续天数的预测误差分别为2.4、2.0、2.3、4.0、3.4 d.
以蘋果的髮育生理生態過程為基礎,以生理髮育時間為呎度,利用天水河穀區麥積試驗點的數據,建立瞭蘋果髮育模擬模型,併用渭北區秦安和關山區清水點觀測數據對模型進行瞭檢驗.結果錶明,模型能較好地預測各箇髮育階段(葉芽膨大期、葉芽開放期、展葉盛期、開花盛期、果實成熟期、葉變色始期)的齣現時間和持續日數.模型對蘋果各箇生育時期的絕對預測誤差一般小于7 d,模擬值與觀測值的迴歸估計標準誤差(RMSE)在到達葉芽開放期、展葉盛期、開花盛期、果實成熟期、葉變色始期等生育時期時分彆為2.4、0.9、2.7、4.0、4.0 d; 各箇髮育階段持續天數的預測誤差分彆為2.4、2.0、2.3、4.0、3.4 d.
이평과적발육생리생태과정위기출,이생리발육시간위척도,이용천수하곡구맥적시험점적수거,건립료평과발육모의모형,병용위북구진안화관산구청수점관측수거대모형진행료검험.결과표명,모형능교호지예측각개발육계단(협아팽대기、협아개방기、전협성기、개화성기、과실성숙기、협변색시기)적출현시간화지속일수.모형대평과각개생육시기적절대예측오차일반소우7 d,모의치여관측치적회귀고계표준오차(RMSE)재도체협아개방기、전협성기、개화성기、과실성숙기、협변색시기등생육시기시분별위2.4、0.9、2.7、4.0、4.0 d; 각개발육계단지속천수적예측오차분별위2.4、2.0、2.3、4.0、3.4 d.
Using experimental data in Maiji area of Tianshui in the valley of Weihe River,a simulation model for apple development was developed based on the concept of physiological development time (PDT) and the photo-thermal reactions of apple in Tianshui. The model was validated by independent experimental data from Qin'an of the north of Wei River and Qingshui of the area of Guanshan Mountains. The results showed that the model could predict better the time of emergence and the sustained number of days of various developmental stages simulated results agreed well with the measured ones. The absolute forecast error of the model is typically less than 7 days in the various development stages of apple, the root mean squared error(RMSE) of simulated and observed values is respectively 2.4, 0.9, 2.7, 4.0, 4.0 days when apple reaches leaf bud open, unfolds leaf peak, flowering peak, fruit mature period and leaf starts to change color development period, the forecast error of sustained the number of days in various development stages is respectively 2.4, 2.0, 2.3, 4.0, 3.4 days.