中山大学学报（自然科学版）
中山大學學報（自然科學版）
중산대학학보（자연과학판）
ACTA SCIENTIARUM NATURALIUM UNIVERSITATIS SUNYATSENI
2010年
2期
113-118
,共6页
洪潮遭遇%洪潮组合%组合风险率%Copula函数%联合分布
洪潮遭遇%洪潮組閤%組閤風險率%Copula函數%聯閤分佈
홍조조우%홍조조합%조합풍험솔%Copula함수%연합분포
floods meeting with tides%the combination of floods and tides%risk probability of the combination%copula functions%joint distributions
洪潮遭遇分析和洪潮组合的合理选取是感潮河段整治规划设计中的重要内容.构建的洪潮遭遇组合的风险分析模型,首先采用Copula函数构建感潮河段的年最大洪水流量和相应潮位的联合分布以及年最高潮位和相应洪水流量的联合分布,再基于联合分布提出遭遇组合的风险分析模型.并以漠阳江河口段的洪潮遭遇组合分析为实例来研究.结果表明,①以洪为主,50年一遇的设计洪水与下游多年平均潮位相组合的风险率为6.89%,②以潮为主,50年一遇的设计潮位与其上游多年平均洪水相组合的风险率为4.77%.根据洪潮遭遇组合风险模型来确定遭遇组合,可为感潮河段洪潮遭遇组合的合理选取提供科学依据.
洪潮遭遇分析和洪潮組閤的閤理選取是感潮河段整治規劃設計中的重要內容.構建的洪潮遭遇組閤的風險分析模型,首先採用Copula函數構建感潮河段的年最大洪水流量和相應潮位的聯閤分佈以及年最高潮位和相應洪水流量的聯閤分佈,再基于聯閤分佈提齣遭遇組閤的風險分析模型.併以漠暘江河口段的洪潮遭遇組閤分析為實例來研究.結果錶明,①以洪為主,50年一遇的設計洪水與下遊多年平均潮位相組閤的風險率為6.89%,②以潮為主,50年一遇的設計潮位與其上遊多年平均洪水相組閤的風險率為4.77%.根據洪潮遭遇組閤風險模型來確定遭遇組閤,可為感潮河段洪潮遭遇組閤的閤理選取提供科學依據.
홍조조우분석화홍조조합적합리선취시감조하단정치규화설계중적중요내용.구건적홍조조우조합적풍험분석모형,수선채용Copula함수구건감조하단적년최대홍수류량화상응조위적연합분포이급년최고조위화상응홍수류량적연합분포,재기우연합분포제출조우조합적풍험분석모형.병이막양강하구단적홍조조우조합분석위실례래연구.결과표명,①이홍위주,50년일우적설계홍수여하유다년평균조위상조합적풍험솔위6.89%,②이조위주,50년일우적설계조위여기상유다년평균홍수상조합적풍험솔위4.77%.근거홍조조우조합풍험모형래학정조우조합,가위감조하단홍조조우조합적합리선취제공과학의거.
The analysis of floods meeting with tides and the rational selection of the combination of floods and tides are vitally important in planning design for the tide affected rivers.The model for the risk probability of the combination of floods and tides was established in this paper.Firstly,the different copula functions were used to build the bivariate joint distribution of annual maximum flood discharge and its corresponding tidal level and the annual maximum tide level and its corresponding flood discharge,respectively.Then,based on both mentioned above the risk probability analysis models for the combination of floods and tides were put forward.The case study of the combined risk probability of floods and tides for the estuary of the Moyang River was conducted.The results indicated: (1) The combinatorial risk probability of the design flood discharge with the fifty-year return period and the average value of annual maximum tide level was 6.89%;(2) The combinatorial risk probability of the design tide level with the fifty-year return period and the average value of annual maximum flood discharge was 4.77%.The models for combined probability of the floods and the tides can be used to measure the risk probability of the combination of floods and tides,which can provide scientific basis for the rational selections for the combined probability of floods and tides.
