CAJ | 학술논문

提出了一类新的SEIRS模型:潜伏状态节点以一定概率进入染病状态的同时,以一定概率进入免疫状态.首先利用平均场理论对疾病的传播行为进行了理论分析,得到了疾病传播的临界阈值,证明了疾病的爆发与消亡完全由临界阈值确定.然后通过计算机仿真,验证了理论结果的正确性.实验结果表明增大节点从潜伏状态向免疫状态的转化概率可有效控制疾病的传播.
제출료일류신적SEIRS모형:잠복상태절점이일정개솔진입염병상태적동시,이일정개솔진입면역상태.수선이용평균장이론대질병적전파행위진행료이론분석,득도료질병전파적림계역치,증명료질병적폭발여소망완전유림계역치학정.연후통과계산궤방진,험증료이론결과적정학성.실험결과표명증대절점종잠복상태향면역상태적전화개솔가유효공제질병적전파.
A new SEIRS model is proposed:individuals who in eclipse period can not only turn into infective individual but also recover at a certain rote.First,the spread of the disease using the mean field theory is analysed and a theoretical critical thresh-old is solved.It indicates the outbreak or demise of the disease entirely determined by this threshold.Then from some simulations the theoretical result is tight.Experimental results show that increasing the probability of nodes from eclipse period to the immune status can control the spread of disease effectively.