中华流行病学杂志
中華流行病學雜誌
중화류행병학잡지
CHINESE JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY
2012年
1期
57-61
,共5页
代敏%任建松%李霓%李倩%杨琳%陈玉恒
代敏%任建鬆%李霓%李倩%楊琳%陳玉恆
대민%임건송%리예%리천%양림%진옥항
肿瘤%发病率%死亡率
腫瘤%髮病率%死亡率
종류%발병솔%사망솔
Cancer%Incidence%Mortality
目的 估计2008年中国肿瘤发病和死亡的情况,并预测今后20年发病数和死亡数.方法 根据中国36个肿瘤登记点的数据以及全国第三次死因调查(2004-2005年)的结果,估计2008年恶性肿瘤的发病和死亡情况,预测2010、2015、2020、2025和2030年的发病数和死亡数.结果 中国按世界人口标化发病率排前10位的癌症是肺癌(33.5/10万)、胃癌、肝癌、乳腺癌、食管癌、结直肠癌、子宫体癌、子宫颈癌、白血病和脑瘤/神经肿瘤(4.4/10万);按世界人口标化死亡率排前10位的癌症依次为肺癌(28.7/10万)、肝癌、胃癌、食管癌、结直肠癌、乳腺癌、子宫颈癌、白血病、脑瘤/神经肿瘤和子宫体癌(2.4/10万).癌症高发人群为40岁以上人群,尤其是男性,40岁以后癌症的发病率和死亡率均超过女性.在今后20年,中国恶性肿瘤的发病数和死亡数均呈现上升趋势.结论 中国恶性肿瘤的发病和死亡情况越来越严重,以肺癌、乳腺癌和消化道肿瘤为主,重点防控对象为40岁以上男性中老年人群.
目的 估計2008年中國腫瘤髮病和死亡的情況,併預測今後20年髮病數和死亡數.方法 根據中國36箇腫瘤登記點的數據以及全國第三次死因調查(2004-2005年)的結果,估計2008年噁性腫瘤的髮病和死亡情況,預測2010、2015、2020、2025和2030年的髮病數和死亡數.結果 中國按世界人口標化髮病率排前10位的癌癥是肺癌(33.5/10萬)、胃癌、肝癌、乳腺癌、食管癌、結直腸癌、子宮體癌、子宮頸癌、白血病和腦瘤/神經腫瘤(4.4/10萬);按世界人口標化死亡率排前10位的癌癥依次為肺癌(28.7/10萬)、肝癌、胃癌、食管癌、結直腸癌、乳腺癌、子宮頸癌、白血病、腦瘤/神經腫瘤和子宮體癌(2.4/10萬).癌癥高髮人群為40歲以上人群,尤其是男性,40歲以後癌癥的髮病率和死亡率均超過女性.在今後20年,中國噁性腫瘤的髮病數和死亡數均呈現上升趨勢.結論 中國噁性腫瘤的髮病和死亡情況越來越嚴重,以肺癌、乳腺癌和消化道腫瘤為主,重點防控對象為40歲以上男性中老年人群.
목적 고계2008년중국종류발병화사망적정황,병예측금후20년발병수화사망수.방법 근거중국36개종류등기점적수거이급전국제삼차사인조사(2004-2005년)적결과,고계2008년악성종류적발병화사망정황,예측2010、2015、2020、2025화2030년적발병수화사망수.결과 중국안세계인구표화발병솔배전10위적암증시폐암(33.5/10만)、위암、간암、유선암、식관암、결직장암、자궁체암、자궁경암、백혈병화뇌류/신경종류(4.4/10만);안세계인구표화사망솔배전10위적암증의차위폐암(28.7/10만)、간암、위암、식관암、결직장암、유선암、자궁경암、백혈병、뇌류/신경종류화자궁체암(2.4/10만).암증고발인군위40세이상인군,우기시남성,40세이후암증적발병솔화사망솔균초과녀성.재금후20년,중국악성종류적발병수화사망수균정현상승추세.결론 중국악성종류적발병화사망정황월래월엄중,이폐암、유선암화소화도종류위주,중점방공대상위40세이상남성중노년인군.
Objective To estimate the incidence and mortality rates of cancers in China in 2008.Methods Data from 36 cancer registry sites in China and from the Third National Death Survey in China (2004-2005) were used to estimate the incidence and mortality of cancer in China in 2008 by using mathematical models.Prediction on cancer incidence and mortality in the next 20 years was carried out.Results According to the age-standardized incidence rates,the top cancer sites were lung,stomach,liver,breast,oesophageal,colorectal,corpus uterine,cervical,leukemia and brain tumor.According to the age-standardized mortality rates,the top cancers in China were lung cancer,liver cancer,stomach cancer,oesophageal cancer,colorectal cancer,breast cancer,cervical cancer,leukemia,brain tumor and corpus uterine cancer.Cancer happened more frequently among people older than 40 years,particularly among males.Data related to prediction showed that the incidence and mortality of cancer in China would gradually increase in the next 20 years.Conclusion Both incidence and mortality of cancers in China had been increasing,with the most common cancers appeared to be lung,breast and digestive tract cancers,in China.People older than 40 years should be under specific care to receive prevention and care on cancer,with males in particular.
