CAJ | 학술논문

本文使用国际上较为成熟的测量方法,系统地计算了60年来中国总人口惯性、城乡人口惯性和分年龄人口惯性的变化和趋势。得出重要结论：第一,中国人口正增长的人口惯性作用正在逐渐消失;第二,中国城镇处于人口正负惯性的转折点,而中国人口的惯性增长完全来自农村;第三,中国人口惯性增长将突出表现为老年组人口规模大幅度的增长。
본문사용국제상교위성숙적측량방법,계통지계산료60년래중국총인구관성、성향인구관성화분년령인구관성적변화화추세。득출중요결론：제일,중국인구정증장적인구관성작용정재축점소실;제이,중국성진처우인구정부관성적전절점,이중국인구적관성증장완전래자농촌;제삼,중국인구관성증장장돌출표현위노년조인구규모대폭도적증장。
This paper calculates total population momentum,urban and rural population momentum and age-specific population momentum in China since 60 years.The main findings and conclusions are as follows：Firstly,the power of population momentum of the positive growth is disappearing rapidly;Secondly,the cities are in the turning point of population momentum from positive to the negative growth while China＇s population growth was wholly attributable to momentum in the rural areas;Thirdly,China＇s population momentum of positive growth mainly is due to substantial growth of the old.