中国农业气象
中國農業氣象
중국농업기상
AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY
2010年
1期
111-114,120
,共5页
日最低气温%初、终霜冻%异常霜冻指标%累积滤波器法%太原市
日最低氣溫%初、終霜凍%異常霜凍指標%纍積濾波器法%太原市
일최저기온%초、종상동%이상상동지표%루적려파기법%태원시
Daily minimum temperature%First and last frost%Unusual frost criterion%Cumulative filter method%Taiyuan city
基于太原市1951-2008年逐日最低气温资料,按轻微、中度和重度3级霜冻强度,分析了太原市霜冻发生的基本特征;采用累积滤波器法结合非参数统计检验方法分析了太原市霜冻的变化趋势;利用异常霜冻指标,分析了太原市霜冻的异常发生情况.结果表明:1)太原市轻微霜冻平均初霜冻日为10月14日、终霜冻日为4月15日,平均无霜冻期为182d.与轻微霜冻相比,中度、重度霜冻平均初霜冻日分别推后9d和23d,平均终霜冻日分别提前11d和24d,平均无霜冻期分别延长20d和47d.2)各级霜冻强度下,初霜冻日在年代际间的变化较为复杂,终霜冻日则表现为20世纪50-70年代偏晚、80年代之后偏早,无霜冻期表现为50-70年代缩短、80年代之后延长为主的变化特点.3)在α＝0.05显著水平下,太原市各级霜冻的初霜冻日呈现显著的推后趋势、终霜冻日呈现显著的提前趋势以及无霜冻期呈现显著的延长趋势,以重度终霜冻日提前趋势最显著.4)太原市轻微偏早初霜冻、中度偏晚终霜冻和重度偏早初霜冻发生频率达15%以上,其余各级异常霜冻的发生频率在5%～10%;大多数异常霜冻发生在50-70年代.5)太原市轻微异常初霜冻对秋粮作物的产量影响较小,中度和重度异常初霜冻会使大白菜遭受不同程度的冻害;春播幼苗主要受到特晚终霜冻的影响;冬小麦遭受终霜冻危害的平均频率为5年一遇,尤以拔节后5d内发生的频率最大.
基于太原市1951-2008年逐日最低氣溫資料,按輕微、中度和重度3級霜凍彊度,分析瞭太原市霜凍髮生的基本特徵;採用纍積濾波器法結閤非參數統計檢驗方法分析瞭太原市霜凍的變化趨勢;利用異常霜凍指標,分析瞭太原市霜凍的異常髮生情況.結果錶明:1)太原市輕微霜凍平均初霜凍日為10月14日、終霜凍日為4月15日,平均無霜凍期為182d.與輕微霜凍相比,中度、重度霜凍平均初霜凍日分彆推後9d和23d,平均終霜凍日分彆提前11d和24d,平均無霜凍期分彆延長20d和47d.2)各級霜凍彊度下,初霜凍日在年代際間的變化較為複雜,終霜凍日則錶現為20世紀50-70年代偏晚、80年代之後偏早,無霜凍期錶現為50-70年代縮短、80年代之後延長為主的變化特點.3)在α＝0.05顯著水平下,太原市各級霜凍的初霜凍日呈現顯著的推後趨勢、終霜凍日呈現顯著的提前趨勢以及無霜凍期呈現顯著的延長趨勢,以重度終霜凍日提前趨勢最顯著.4)太原市輕微偏早初霜凍、中度偏晚終霜凍和重度偏早初霜凍髮生頻率達15%以上,其餘各級異常霜凍的髮生頻率在5%～10%;大多數異常霜凍髮生在50-70年代.5)太原市輕微異常初霜凍對鞦糧作物的產量影響較小,中度和重度異常初霜凍會使大白菜遭受不同程度的凍害;春播幼苗主要受到特晚終霜凍的影響;鼕小麥遭受終霜凍危害的平均頻率為5年一遇,尤以拔節後5d內髮生的頻率最大.
기우태원시1951-2008년축일최저기온자료,안경미、중도화중도3급상동강도,분석료태원시상동발생적기본특정;채용루적려파기법결합비삼수통계검험방법분석료태원시상동적변화추세;이용이상상동지표,분석료태원시상동적이상발생정황.결과표명:1)태원시경미상동평균초상동일위10월14일、종상동일위4월15일,평균무상동기위182d.여경미상동상비,중도、중도상동평균초상동일분별추후9d화23d,평균종상동일분별제전11d화24d,평균무상동기분별연장20d화47d.2)각급상동강도하,초상동일재년대제간적변화교위복잡,종상동일칙표현위20세기50-70년대편만、80년대지후편조,무상동기표현위50-70년대축단、80년대지후연장위주적변화특점.3)재α＝0.05현저수평하,태원시각급상동적초상동일정현현저적추후추세、종상동일정현현저적제전추세이급무상동기정현현저적연장추세,이중도종상동일제전추세최현저.4)태원시경미편조초상동、중도편만종상동화중도편조초상동발생빈솔체15%이상,기여각급이상상동적발생빈솔재5%～10%;대다수이상상동발생재50-70년대.5)태원시경미이상초상동대추량작물적산량영향교소,중도화중도이상초상동회사대백채조수불동정도적동해;춘파유묘주요수도특만종상동적영향;동소맥조수종상동위해적평균빈솔위5년일우,우이발절후5d내발생적빈솔최대.
The frost characteristics in Taiyuan city were analyzed based on the daily minimum temperature data in Taiyuan Meteorological Station from 1951 to 2008, by using the methods statistics, cumulative filter and non-parametric respectively. The results showed that the first light frost was occurred in October 14~(th) , and the last light frost was in April 15~(th) . The average free-frost period was 182 days. Comparably, the first moderate and severe frost delayed 9 days and 23 days, the last ones advanced 11 days and 24 days. The average free-frost period was extended 20 days and 47 days.In totally, the first frost changed complexly, the last frost was delayed during 1950s to 1970s and advanced since 1980s. The average free-frost period was shortened during 1950s to 1970s and extended since 1980s. Generally, the first frost delayed and last frost advanced, and the average free-frost period was extended. The occurring frequency of abnormal first or last frost event took up 5～15%, most of them were in the years of 1950s-1970s. The abnormal first light frost event usually had little impacts on crops and cabbage. But the cabbage would suffer from freezing injury with the abnormal first moderate or severe frost. The abnormal last frost could affect seedling in spring. Winter wheat suffered from the frost damage one time in each 5 years, and the risk stage was 5 days after jointing.
