CAJ | 학술논문

为了更准确地预测2015年焦作市对主要矿产资源的年需求量,通过比较弹性系数法、回归模型法、使用强度法等预测方法可知,用回归模型对2015年焦作市煤炭需求的预测更接近目前发展情况,弹性系数模型的弹性系数大小受人为因素的影响非常大,所以存在着比较大的误差,使用强度模型对矿产品需求预测时,必须特别考虑经济发展阶段和产业结构调整状况,不适合中长期矿产品需求预测.
위료경준학지예측2015년초작시대주요광산자원적년수구량,통과비교탄성계수법、회귀모형법、사용강도법등예측방법가지,용회귀모형대2015년초작시매탄수구적예측경접근목전발전정황,탄성계수모형적탄성계수대소수인위인소적영향비상대,소이존재착비교대적오차,사용강도모형대광산품수구예측시,필수특별고필경제발전계단화산업결구조정상황,불괄합중장기광산품수구예측.
In order to predict the demand of the main mineral resources in Jiaozuo City more accurately in 2015,By means of comparing elastic coefficient method,regression model method and intensity of use model,it educe the quantity of requirement in the future in Jiaozuo city.And the results show that the regression model approaches the developmental condition for the coal-demand forecast in the year of 2015;The elastic coefficient of the elastic coefficient method model is closed to the artificial factor,and it will make many errors.It must consider the status of economic development and industrial structure.When predicting the demand of minerals resomces by using of intersity model,which is not suitable for forecasting the middle and long-range demand.