空军工程大学学报(自然科学版)
空軍工程大學學報(自然科學版)
공군공정대학학보(자연과학판)
JOURNAL OF AIR FORCE ENGINEERING UNIVERSITY (NATURAL SCIENCE EDITION)
2010年
1期
5-10
,共6页
赵辉%蚩军祥%胡杰%肖树臣
趙輝%蚩軍祥%鬍傑%肖樹臣
조휘%치군상%호걸%초수신
在线修正%时间序列预测%粗糙集%决策%自回归移动平均
在線脩正%時間序列預測%粗糙集%決策%自迴歸移動平均
재선수정%시간서렬예측%조조집%결책%자회귀이동평균
time series forecasting%rough sets%decision-making%autoregressive moving average%on-line correction
针对机载传感器不能在作战时限内获取目标参数从而造成属性匹配过程失败的情况,提出了一种基于在线修正时间序列预测方法的UCAV粗决策模型.通过对以往时刻传感器数据的时间序列分析,建立最优自回归移动平均模型,根据延迟获取的数据,运用在线修正预测方法,完成对未来时刻传感器数据的预测及预测值的修正,作为粗糙集决策属性匹配的输入完成决策过程.通过对UCAV目标威胁估计实例的分析可知,该模型能在决策数据的基础上,根据时间序列预测值,提取出所有条件下的决策规则,给出有效决策建议.
針對機載傳感器不能在作戰時限內穫取目標參數從而造成屬性匹配過程失敗的情況,提齣瞭一種基于在線脩正時間序列預測方法的UCAV粗決策模型.通過對以往時刻傳感器數據的時間序列分析,建立最優自迴歸移動平均模型,根據延遲穫取的數據,運用在線脩正預測方法,完成對未來時刻傳感器數據的預測及預測值的脩正,作為粗糙集決策屬性匹配的輸入完成決策過程.通過對UCAV目標威脅估計實例的分析可知,該模型能在決策數據的基礎上,根據時間序列預測值,提取齣所有條件下的決策規則,給齣有效決策建議.
침대궤재전감기불능재작전시한내획취목표삼수종이조성속성필배과정실패적정황,제출료일충기우재선수정시간서렬예측방법적UCAV조결책모형.통과대이왕시각전감기수거적시간서렬분석,건립최우자회귀이동평균모형,근거연지획취적수거,운용재선수정예측방법,완성대미래시각전감기수거적예측급예측치적수정,작위조조집결책속성필배적수입완성결책과정.통과대UCAV목표위협고계실례적분석가지,해모형능재결책수거적기출상,근거시간서렬예측치,제취출소유조건하적결책규칙,급출유효결책건의.
To deal with the matter that airborne sensors may not acquire targets' parameters in combat time limitation, which leads to failure of attributes matching, a rough decision-making model for UCAV based on on-line correction time series forecasting method is presented. With the time series analysis results of sensors' data in previous time, the optimal autoregressive moving average model is constructed. With the acquired delayed data, sensors' data in future time, which would be used as an input to the process of attributes matching , are predicted and the data are corrected by on-line correction prediction method. As the analysis of an example of target threat assessment for UCAV shows, the decision-making model can extract rules in all conditions and present efficient decision-making advices.