CAJ | 학술논문

气候变化引起水热条件的变化,从而影响到我国农业生产的方方面面,人们采取不同措施以适应气候变化带来的各种影响.为了清楚地认识气候变化对我国主要粮食作物生产的影响以及适应措施,利用<中国农业统计年鉴>1980-2007年资料和1961-2007年全国逐日平均温度观测数据及前人的研究成果,分析了气候变化对我国三大粮食作物布局和种植结构的影响.结果表明,由于气候变暖,粮食作物种植比例变化明显.小麦种植比例对气候变化最为敏感,波动大;水稻种植比例变化南北方反向,且变化幅度趋缓;玉米种植比例持续增加,增幅加大.三大粮食作物种植结构变化均以2000年为分界点,呈现不同增减趋势.而作物熟制、复种指数也发生明显变化,种植北界持续北推.黑龙江地区大面积扩种水稻,原来的玉米优势种植区为水稻所替代.
기후변화인기수열조건적변화,종이영향도아국농업생산적방방면면,인문채취불동조시이괄응기후변화대래적각충영향.위료청초지인식기후변화대아국주요양식작물생산적영향이급괄응조시,이용<중국농업통계년감>1980-2007년자료화1961-2007년전국축일평균온도관측수거급전인적연구성과,분석료기후변화대아국삼대양식작물포국화충식결구적영향.결과표명,유우기후변난,양식작물충식비례변화명현.소맥충식비례대기후변화최위민감,파동대;수도충식비례변화남북방반향,차변화폭도추완;옥미충식비례지속증가,증폭가대.삼대양식작물충식결구변화균이2000년위분계점,정현불동증감추세.이작물숙제、복충지수야발생명현변화,충식북계지속북추.흑룡강지구대면적확충수도,원래적옥미우세충식구위수도소체대.
The water and heat conditions change resulted from climate change has strongly affected agricultural production, and famers take various kinds of measures to adapt to impacts of climate change. To further understand the effects of climate change on main grain crops and the adaptive measures taken by farmers, we analyzed changes in the planting structure of main grain crops based on the daily average temperature and the data from "China Agricultural Yearbook" published from 1980 to 2007 by National Bureau of Statistics as well as research results from literature. The results indicate that planting proportion changes of main grain crops were obvious on the nationwide scale from 1980 to 2007 as the result of the climate wanning, the wheat planting proportion was more sensitive to climate change, and it fluctuated largely; the paddy rice planting proportion changed in opposite trends in northern and southern China, and its change has become slower; the corn planting proportion continued to increase, its change was enlarging; the planting structure of the three main grain crops (paddy rice, wheat and corn) all changed in 2000 with different increasing/declining trends. Furthermore, the crops ripe system and the multiple cropping index also changed obviously; the north boundary of crops planting has continuously moved northward. The winter wheat planting area in northern China in 2007 moved northward by nearly 100 km compared with the 1960s. The paddy rice planting area has greatly expanded in Heilongjiang Province, where the paddy rice has dominated in the original corn planting areas.