CAJ | 학술논문

文章根据对国内外经济形势的分析以及模型测算,预测2010年我国房地产价格基本稳定,房地产投资和供给较快增长,房地产需求稳中有升,市场处于景气状态.主要原因有:宏观政策鼓励房地产健康发展;购房愿望和能力仍支撑刚性需求;通货膨胀预期刺激短期需求;土地供给制度制约市场供给;上游产品涨价传导到房地产市场;城市化新趋势推动房地产发展等.文中最后就房地产制度建设、调控政策、抑制投机以及城市化新挑战等提出了一些政策建议.
문장근거대국내외경제형세적분석이급모형측산,예측2010년아국방지산개격기본은정,방지산투자화공급교쾌증장,방지산수구은중유승,시장처우경기상태.주요원인유:굉관정책고려방지산건강발전;구방원망화능력잉지탱강성수구;통화팽창예기자격단기수구;토지공급제도제약시장공급;상유산품창개전도도방지산시장;성시화신추세추동방지산발전등.문중최후취방지산제도건설、조공정책、억제투궤이급성시화신도전등제출료일사정책건의.
Based on an analysis of the economic situation and an econometric model,this paper predicts that China'S real estate price in 2010 will remain stable,the investment and supply will keep fast growth,and the demand will tum to increase steadily.The market will maintain its prosperity.The main reasons are:macroscopic policy encouraging the real estate to develop healthily;the wish and ability for purchasing houses still supporting rigid demand;inflation expected to stimulate short-term demand;land supply system restricting marketing supply; the upstream products rising price conducting to the real estate market;and new trend of urbanization promoting the development of the real estate,etc.Finally,some suggestions on policy are proposed in this paper for the construction of the real estate system,regulating and controlling policy,restricting speculation,and new challenge for urbanization.