CAJ | 학술논문

利用呼和浩特市1962-2007年逐日气温以及采暖期供热部门提供的相关参数,运用数理统计等分析方法,参照采暖供热等相关规范,综合分析了呼和浩特市采暖变化特征以及气候变暖对采暖能耗的影响.结果表明:随着气候变暖,呼和浩特市采暖期比实际采暖期缩短30d,尤其是在1988年气温发生突变之后,采暖期缩短趋势更加明显.采暖期能耗的高低与采暖度日和采暖期长度关系极为密切.近46年呼和浩特市采暖度日与采暖期长度均呈现显著下降趋势,说明呼和浩特市冬季寒冷程度减弱,寒冷期变短,如果采取措施可以有效降低采暖能耗.呼和浩特-市采暖需求偏多年份88%以上出现在20世纪60-70年代,而约有85%的偏少年份出现在20世纪90年代至21世纪初期.
이용호화호특시1962-2007년축일기온이급채난기공열부문제공적상관삼수,운용수리통계등분석방법,삼조채난공열등상관규범,종합분석료호화호특시채난변화특정이급기후변난대채난능모적영향.결과표명:수착기후변난,호화호특시채난기비실제채난기축단30d,우기시재1988년기온발생돌변지후,채난기축단추세경가명현.채난기능모적고저여채난도일화채난기장도관계겁위밀절.근46년호화호특시채난도일여채난기장도균정현현저하강추세,설명호화호특시동계한랭정도감약,한랭기변단,여과채취조시가이유효강저채난능모.호화호특-시채난수구편다년빈88%이상출현재20세기60-70년대,이약유85%적편소년빈출현재20세기90년대지21세기초기.
Based on the daily temperature and wind speed data, and relevant parameters provided by the heat supply sector of Hohhot during 1962-2007, and the relevant heating regulation, by means of mathematic statistics methods,the temporal evolution of winter heating and the impact of climate warming on the energy consumed for winter heating are analyzed. It is concluded that with climate warming, the heating period has been shortened by 30 days,especially after 1988 when an abrupt change in daily average temperature took place;the energy consumed in the heating period is closely related with the duration and degree-day of the heating period each year, and they both have shown a significant decline trend in past 46 years, indicating that the winter in Hohhot is warming and the cold period is getting shorter, therefore, the energy consumed is reduced: 88% of the years when the energy consumed in the heating period was more than normal occurred in the period of the 1960s to 1970s, and 85% of the years when the energy consumed was less than normal appeared in the period of the 1990s to now, suggesting that the persistent warming period started from the 1990s.