CAJ | 학술논문

目的分析国家传染病自动预警系统(预警系统)在浙江省传染病暴发早期探测中的效果.方法以浙江省2008年7月1日至2010年6月30日移动百分位数法预警相关病种的预警信号数及初步核实、现场调查结果和突发公共卫生事件报告系统报告结果作为研究对象,以灵敏度和错误预警率评价预警系统的有效性.结果预警系统共发出预警信号26 446条,涉及17种传染病,平均每县每周预警信号2.83条.99.95%的预警信号得到响应,预警信号经过初步核实后,254条(0.90%)预警信号被判断为疑似事件,经过现场调查共确认暴发30起,预警系统的灵敏度为69.77%,预警错误率为1.39%.结论预警系统可初步实现传染病暴发的早期自动预警,但仍需进一步研究以减少假阳性预警信号,合理设置阈值,提高暴发探测来源数据的质量.
목적 분석국가전염병자동예경계통(예경계통)재절강성전염병폭발조기탐측중적효과.방법 이절강성2008년7월1일지2010년6월30일이동백분위수법예경상관병충적예경신호수급초보핵실、현장조사결과화돌발공공위생사건보고계통보고결과작위연구대상,이령민도화착오예경솔평개예경계통적유효성.결과 예경계통공발출예경신호26 446조,섭급17충전염병,평균매현매주예경신호2.83조.99.95%적예경신호득도향응,예경신호경과초보핵실후,254조(0.90%)예경신호피판단위의사사건,경과현장조사공학인폭발30기,예경계통적령민도위69.77%,예경착오솔위1.39%.결론 예경계통가초보실현전염병폭발적조기자동예경,단잉수진일보연구이감소가양성예경신호,합리설치역치,제고폭발탐측래원수거적질량.
Objective To evaluate the performance of China Infectious Disease Automatedalert and Response System(CIDARS). Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on data related to the warning signals, the outcome of signal verification, the field investigation of CIDARS,and the emergent events reported through Public Health Emergency Events Surveillance System from July 1,2008 to June 30, 2010 in Zhejiang province. The performance of CIDARS was qualitatively evaluated by indicators on its sensitivity and rote of false alarm. Results In total, 26 446 signals were generated by the system which involving 17 diseases, with an average of 2.83 signals per country per week. Among all the signals, 99.95% of them were responded. 0.90% of the signals were judged as suspected events via the preliminary verification, and 30 outbreaks were finally confirmed by field investigation. The sensitivity of the system was 69.77% with the false alarm rate as 1.39%. Conclusion The system seemed to have worked on the outbreak early warning of infectious diseases and could directly reflect the anomaly event emerged from the infectious disease reporting system.However, more efforts should be paid to the following areas as how to decrease the false positive signals, select suitable thresholds and increase the quality of data in order to enhance the accuracy of the system.