山西大学学报(自然科学版)
山西大學學報(自然科學版)
산서대학학보(자연과학판)
JOURNAL OF SHANXI UNIVERSITY
2011年
3期
500-506
,共7页
耕地变化%灰色预测%京津冀地区
耕地變化%灰色預測%京津冀地區
경지변화%회색예측%경진기지구
Farmland change%grey prediction%the Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei region
利用京津冀地区耕地面积统计资料为基础,采用耕地资源变化率计算方法和灰色预测法,分析和预测了该地区耕地的变化及趋势.研究结果表明:1985-2007年京津冀地区耕地总面积呈波动下降趋势,总共减少924.3 k hm2,多年平均变化率为-0.59%.耕地的三种类型之中,旱地和水田面积几乎年年减少,多年平均变化率分别为-3.57%和-0.73%,而水浇地的面积在大部分年份都有所增加,多年平均变化率为0.85%.2020年,京津冀地区的耕地总量将从2007年的6 531.61 k hm2减小至6 164.4 k hm2,耕地总面积平均每年减少0.44%,即28.7 k hm2.旱地和水田将继续保持较高的减少率,平均每年分剐减少2.57%和0.84%.而水浇地的预测结果为2007年至2020年间每年稍增0.17%.在未来的十几年中,尽管耕地减少的速率减缓,但是京津冀地区耕地保护的压力依然很大.
利用京津冀地區耕地麵積統計資料為基礎,採用耕地資源變化率計算方法和灰色預測法,分析和預測瞭該地區耕地的變化及趨勢.研究結果錶明:1985-2007年京津冀地區耕地總麵積呈波動下降趨勢,總共減少924.3 k hm2,多年平均變化率為-0.59%.耕地的三種類型之中,旱地和水田麵積幾乎年年減少,多年平均變化率分彆為-3.57%和-0.73%,而水澆地的麵積在大部分年份都有所增加,多年平均變化率為0.85%.2020年,京津冀地區的耕地總量將從2007年的6 531.61 k hm2減小至6 164.4 k hm2,耕地總麵積平均每年減少0.44%,即28.7 k hm2.旱地和水田將繼續保持較高的減少率,平均每年分剮減少2.57%和0.84%.而水澆地的預測結果為2007年至2020年間每年稍增0.17%.在未來的十幾年中,儘管耕地減少的速率減緩,但是京津冀地區耕地保護的壓力依然很大.
이용경진기지구경지면적통계자료위기출,채용경지자원변화솔계산방법화회색예측법,분석화예측료해지구경지적변화급추세.연구결과표명:1985-2007년경진기지구경지총면적정파동하강추세,총공감소924.3 k hm2,다년평균변화솔위-0.59%.경지적삼충류형지중,한지화수전면적궤호년년감소,다년평균변화솔분별위-3.57%화-0.73%,이수요지적면적재대부분년빈도유소증가,다년평균변화솔위0.85%.2020년,경진기지구적경지총량장종2007년적6 531.61 k hm2감소지6 164.4 k hm2,경지총면적평균매년감소0.44%,즉28.7 k hm2.한지화수전장계속보지교고적감소솔,평균매년분과감소2.57%화0.84%.이수요지적예측결과위2007년지2020년간매년초증0.17%.재미래적십궤년중,진관경지감소적속솔감완,단시경진기지구경지보호적압력의연흔대.
Based on statistical data of farmland area in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region,the farmland change and trend were analyzed using land use change indices and grey prediction methods.The results indicated that the total farmland area was reduced by 924.3 k hm2,averaged -0.59% per year from 1985 to 2007.Of the three farmland types,rainfed farmland and paddy field decreased significantly by -3.57% and -0.73 % per year,respectively,while the irrigated farmland increased by 0.85 % per year.In 2020,the total area of farmland was predicted to decrease to 6 164.4 k hm2 from 6 531.61 k hm2 in 2007,reduced by 0.44% or 28.7 k hm2 per year;Rainfed farmland and paddy field would keep a higher reducing rate at 2.57 % and 0.84%,respectively,while irrigated farmland was predicted to slightly increase by 0.17% per year in 2007-2020.In the next ten years,although the farmland reduction was predicted to slow down,considerable pressure on the regional farmland protection still exists in the BTH region.