CAJ | 학술논문

目的分析上海市区1973-2005年鼻咽癌发病率变化趋势.方法利用上海市肿瘤登记资料,计算鼻咽癌的粗发病率(粗率)、世界标准人口调整后发病率(世调率)、截缩率和累积发病率.采用线性同归模型计算发病率的估计年度变化百分比(APC).结果 33年间上海市区共登记鼻咽癌新发病例7889例,其中男5555例、女2334例.男性鼻咽癌33年间发病趋势保持不变呈平稳状态,粗率和标化率分别由1973-1976年的4.56/10万和4.12/10万变化到2001-2005年的6.18/10万和3.96/10万,APC为-0.250%,差异无统计学意义(P=0.340).而女性鼻咽癌发病率有下降的趋势,粗率和标化率分别由1973-1976年的2.60/10万和2.18/10万变化到2001-2005年的2.41/10万和1.42/10万,APC为-1.577%,差异有统计学意义(P<0.001).结论 1973-2005年上海市区男性鼻咽癌发病水平呈平稳趋势,而女性鼻咽癌发病率有下降的趋势.提示应进一步开展分析流行病学调查,研究其病因和防治对策.
목적 분석상해시구1973-2005년비인암발병솔변화추세.방법 이용상해시종류등기자료,계산비인암적조발병솔(조솔)、세계표준인구조정후발병솔(세조솔)、절축솔화루적발병솔.채용선성동귀모형계산발병솔적고계년도변화백분비(APC).결과 33년간상해시구공등기비인암신발병례7889례,기중남5555례、녀2334례.남성비인암33년간발병추세보지불변정평은상태,조솔화표화솔분별유1973-1976년적4.56/10만화4.12/10만변화도2001-2005년적6.18/10만화3.96/10만,APC위-0.250%,차이무통계학의의(P=0.340).이녀성비인암발병솔유하강적추세,조솔화표화솔분별유1973-1976년적2.60/10만화2.18/10만변화도2001-2005년적2.41/10만화1.42/10만,APC위-1.577%,차이유통계학의의(P<0.001).결론 1973-2005년상해시구남성비인암발병수평정평은추세,이녀성비인암발병솔유하강적추세.제시응진일보개전분석류행병학조사,연구기병인화방치대책.
Objective To explore the secular trend of incidence for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) in urban Shanghai during 1973-2005. Methods The incidence data from the population-based cancer registries in Shanghai was used in our analysis. We calculated the crude incidence rates, age-adjusted incidence rates, trucated rates and cumulative rates of NPC. The annual percentage change (APC) was used as an estimate of the secular trend. Results Over 33 years, a total of 7889 incident NPC cases in urban Shanghai were registered for 5555 males and 2334 females, respectively. The incidence of NPC had remained stable in males during the period (APC=-0.250%, P= 0.340), but a decreasing trend was observed in females with an average reduction of -1.577% (P=0.000) per year. During the period of 1973-1976 to 2001-2005, the crude incidence rates changed from 4.56 to 6.18 and from 3.96 to 2.41 per 100 000 in males and females, and the age-adjusted rates from 4.12 to 3.96 and from 2.18 to 3.42 per 100 000 in males and females, respectively. Conclusion From 1973 to 2005, the incidence of NPC was stable in males while having a decline in females, indicating that further epidemioiogical study and prevention for NPC should be addressed.