CAJ | 학술논문

运用经济计量分析的方法分析了湖北省耕地面积变化与经济发展的关系和相互作用.结果表明:(1)湖北省耕地面积变化同经济发展存在长期稳定的关系.(2)因果关系检验表明,湖北省经济发展同耕地面积变化呈现单向因果关系.(3)耕地面积变化对来自经济发展的冲击响应强烈,经济发展的冲击对耕面积变化的贡献率达到19.28%;经济发展对来自耕地面积变化的冲击响应微弱,耕地面积变化的冲击对经济发展的贡献率不到0.69%.因此,要协调经济发展和耕地保护矛盾,必须提高经济发展质量,走集约利用土地的道路.
운용경제계량분석적방법분석료호북성경지면적변화여경제발전적관계화상호작용.결과표명:(1)호북성경지면적변화동경제발전존재장기은정적관계.(2)인과관계검험표명,호북성경제발전동경지면적변화정현단향인과관계.(3)경지면적변화대래자경제발전적충격향응강렬,경제발전적충격대경면적변화적공헌솔체도19.28%;경제발전대래자경지면적변화적충격향응미약,경지면적변화적충격대경제발전적공헌솔불도0.69%.인차,요협조경제발전화경지보호모순,필수제고경제발전질량,주집약이용토지적도로.
The relationshipa and interactions between cultivated land quantity and economic development in Hubei were explored in the paper by using the method of econometrics analysis.The result indicated that:(1)Equilibrium relationship between cultivated land quantity and economic development exists in Hubei.(2)Granger Test of causality showed that economic development in Hubei Granger Cause cultivated land quantity while cultivated land quantity doid not Granger Cause economic development.(3)The response of cultivated land quantity to economic development impulse was remarkable and the economic development impulse could explain the change of cultivated land quantity to a certain extent of 19.28%;the response of economic development to cultivated land quantity impulse didn't remarkable and the cultivated land quantity impulse can only explain the change of economic development to a certain extent of below 0.69%.Therefore,Improving the quality of economic development and strengthening the cultivated land quality conservation and promoting intensive land use were consequential to harmonize cultivated land conservation with economic development in Hubei.