CAJ | 학술논문

能源的使用是导致环境恶化的主要原因之一,所以研究能源消费与不同污染物之间的关系就很有必要.本文以1985-2007年的年度数据为样本,建立了自回归分布滞后-误差修正模型,并运用边限检验对我国的能源消费与环境污染之间的关系进行了实证研究.研究结果表明:长期来看能源消费总量、煤炭占能源消费总量的比重和水电、核电、风电占能源消费总量的比重对SO_2的排放有重要影响,但是对工业烟尘排放量来说只有水电、核电、风电占能源消费总量的比重的影响是显著的;短期来看煤炭占能源消费总量的比重对SO_2排放的影响是显著的,能源消费总量和水电、核电、风电占能源消费总量的比重对工业烟尘的排放有显著影响.由于能源消费总量和结构对不同污染物的长期和短期影响存在较大差异,所以在治理时应区别对待.
능원적사용시도치배경악화적주요원인지일,소이연구능원소비여불동오염물지간적관계취흔유필요.본문이1985-2007년적년도수거위양본,건립료자회귀분포체후-오차수정모형,병운용변한검험대아국적능원소비여배경오염지간적관계진행료실증연구.연구결과표명:장기래간능원소비총량、매탄점능원소비총량적비중화수전、핵전、풍전점능원소비총량적비중대SO_2적배방유중요영향,단시대공업연진배방량래설지유수전、핵전、풍전점능원소비총량적비중적영향시현저적;단기래간매탄점능원소비총량적비중대SO_2배방적영향시현저적,능원소비총량화수전、핵전、풍전점능원소비총량적비중대공업연진적배방유현저영향.유우능원소비총량화결구대불동오염물적장기화단기영향존재교대차이,소이재치리시응구별대대.
Energy use is one of the prime factors to lead to environmental deterioration. Thus it's necessary to research the correlation between energy use and different infectants. The authors selected annual data from 1985 to 2007 as sample, and did empirical research by the methodologies of bounds testing and autoregressive distributed lag error correction model (ARDL-ECM) to investigate the relationship between energy use and environmental pollution. The research indicated that, in the long term, total energy consumption, the proportion of coal in total energy consumption, the proportion of hydroelectric power, nuclear power and wind power in total energy consumption are observably influential to the discharging of SO_2, but for the discharging of industrial fumes, only the proportion of hydroelectric power, nuclear power and wind power in total energy consumption have distinct influence on the discharge of SO_2; in the short term, the proportion of coal in total energy consumption has distinct influence on the discharging of SO_2. Total energy consumption and the proportion of hydroelectric power, nuclear power and wind power in total energy consumption have remarkable influence on the discharging of industrial fumes. In the view of large differences between the long term and short term influence from different total energy consumption and structure on different pollutants, we should make a difference when control pollution.