CAJ | 학술논문

[目的]预测褐家鼠体表蚤的感染率.[方法]在云南省的23个县(市)进行现场抽样,采集褐家鼠体表蚤,运用包涵平均感染度及方差的流行性模型.[结果]蚤感染率与感染度的对数值成线性相关,蚤感染率的预测值与实际值成线性相关.[结论]褐家鼠体表蚤的平均感染度可以预测其感染率.
[목적]예측갈가서체표조적감염솔.[방법]재운남성적23개현(시)진행현장추양,채집갈가서체표조,운용포함평균감염도급방차적류행성모형.[결과]조감염솔여감염도적대수치성선성상관,조감염솔적예측치여실제치성선성상관.[결론]갈가서체표조적평균감염도가이예측기감염솔.
[Objective] To predict prevalence of fleas via a simple epidemiological model. [Method] The field investigation was carried out in 23 locations in Yunnan Province. A simple epidemiological model was involved mean abundance and variance of abundance. [Result] The prevalence of fleas increased with their mean abundance in logistic curve. A linear correlation of the predicted prevalence against observed prevalence did not differ significantly from unity. [Conclusion] Prevalence could be explained simply by their mean abundance.