CAJ | 학술논문

目的构建与中国结核病流行特征相适应的监测预警指标体系.方法采用定性和定量研究相结合的方法,首先应用文献研究及专家会议法拟定初始的指标体系框架,然后通过Delphi法构建预警指标并确定各指标的权重.结果两轮Delphi法咨询专家的积极系数分别为87.0％、90.0％；专家权威系数的均数分别为0.850±0.055、0.917±0.017.专家意见集中程度各指标总得分均数分别为7.063±1.435、8.156±0.611；变异系数均数分别为0.352±0.161、0.170±0.057;专家意见协调系数分别为0.322(x2=499.472,P＜0.05)和0.393(x2=241.126,P＜0.05).经过两轮咨询,最终建立包含4个一级指标、9个二级指标、48个三级指标的结核病监测预警指标体系.结论初步建立了中国结核病监测预警指标体系,为该病的预测、预警模型的建立提供参考.
목적 구건여중국결핵병류행특정상괄응적감측예경지표체계.방법 채용정성화정량연구상결합적방법,수선응용문헌연구급전가회의법의정초시적지표체계광가,연후통과Delphi법구건예경지표병학정각지표적권중.결과 량륜Delphi법자순전가적적겁계수분별위87.0％、90.0％；전가권위계수적균수분별위0.850±0.055、0.917±0.017.전가의견집중정도각지표총득분균수분별위7.063±1.435、8.156±0.611；변이계수균수분별위0.352±0.161、0.170±0.057;전가의견협조계수분별위0.322(x2=499.472,P＜0.05)화0.393(x2=241.126,P＜0.05).경과량륜자순,최종건립포함4개일급지표、9개이급지표、48개삼급지표적결핵병감측예경지표체계.결론 초보건립료중국결핵병감측예경지표체계,위해병적예측、예경모형적건립제공삼고.
Objective To establish the surveillance and warning index system corresponnding with the epidemic characteristics of tuberculosis,in China.Methods Literature review and expert meeting were conducted to formulate the preliminary index system frame.Delphi method was used for screening the index and determining the weight of each index.Results Two-round Delphi consultations were performed.The activity coefficients were 87.0％,90.0％ respectively,with means of authority coefficient as 0.850 ± 0.055 and 0.917 ± 0.017,respectively.Mean scores of the index were 7.063 ± 1.435,8.156 ± 0.611 respectively,with the means of coefficient of variation as 0.352 ±0.161 and 0.170 ± 0.057 respectively.The harmony coefficients were 0.322 (x2=499.472,P＜0.05)and 0.393 (x2=241.126,P＜0.05) respectively.After the two-round consultation,the tuberculosis monitoring and warning index system was developed,including 4 first-class indicators,9 second-class indicators and 48 third- class indicators.Conclusion An index system was established for tuberculosis monitoring and early warning that could provide evidence for tuberculosis prevention and control as well as for the forecasting and warning model of the disease.