CAJ | 학술논문

该文提出一种参数化预报方法,制作北京及其周边地区夏季空气质量气象条件指数预报.采用2000-2007年7-9月北京市观象台大气成分(PM_(10))逐日观测资料和华北区域气象站网加密地面观测及探空信息,分析北京地区夏季奥运会历史同期与高污染过程(PM_(10)浓度>150 μg/m~3)关系密切的敏感气象要素和变量.引入适应度函数分级方法,计算北京周边不同观测站可能形成污染向北京输送的权重,建立北京夏季空气质量气象条件参数PLAM(parameters linking air-quality and meteorology)预报模型.PLAM指数给出北京局地污染气象条件的客观定量诊断和预测,并可指示周边地区有利(或不利)于污染向北京输送的强度和方位.夏季"静稳型"气象条件参数化PLAM方法为北京奥运气象保障任务实时提供预报产品,分别用PM_(10)及可吸入颗粒物指数(API)对2008年7-8月PLAM逐日预报进行检验,相关系数达到0.001显著性水平.
해문제출일충삼수화예보방법,제작북경급기주변지구하계공기질량기상조건지수예보.채용2000-2007년7-9월북경시관상태대기성분(PM_(10))축일관측자료화화북구역기상참망가밀지면관측급탐공신식,분석북경지구하계오운회역사동기여고오염과정(PM_(10)농도>150 μg/m~3)관계밀절적민감기상요소화변량.인입괄응도함수분급방법,계산북경주변불동관측참가능형성오염향북경수송적권중,건립북경하계공기질량기상조건삼수PLAM(parameters linking air-quality and meteorology)예보모형.PLAM지수급출북경국지오염기상조건적객관정량진단화예측,병가지시주변지구유리(혹불리)우오염향북경수송적강도화방위.하계"정은형"기상조건삼수화PLAM방법위북경오운기상보장임무실시제공예보산품,분별용PM_(10)급가흡입과립물지수(API)대2008년7-8월PLAM축일예보진행검험,상관계수체도0.001현저성수평.
For a regional air pollution event in a synoptic scale,such as typical stabilized summer weather over North China,a key scientific issue is to identify the possible impacts of pollutants on mega-cities like Beijing and on the zones between the cities and their adjacent areas,from emissions by human activities,e.g.,industrial and agricultural emissions as well as traffic exhaustions in the so-called capital economic belt,covering Beijing,Tianjin and a number of surrounding provinces,including Hebei and Shanxi provinces.For this special target as well as the assignment of the air quality predicting service in 2008 Beijing Olympic Games,a parameterized method is developed to predict the air quality in Beijing and its surrounding areas in summer.On the basis of the relationship between summer daily PM_(10) in Beijing Observatory and key meteorological data for July to September during 2000-2007,analyzing the sensitive meteorological parameters which are relevant closely with high concentration of PM_(10),an index method of PLAM (parameter linking air-quality and meteorology) is given,which is derived to forecast the stabilized weather conditions of North China for 2008 Beijing Olympic Games.For different PLAM value there is a weight given according to the wind direction of the site pointing what extent to Beijing,as well as its wind speed.So the PLAM index can also predict quantitatively the weather conditions in surrounding areas of Beijing,showing whether or not the meteorological conditions in these areas are favorable for pollutants transport to Beijing.It is found that the poor air quality days with elevated PM_(10)(>150 μg/m~3) in summer are associated with higher PLAM values,featuring high temperature,high humidity,lower wind velocity and higher stability.A satisfying result of PLAM index forecast timely for the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games is achieved.PLAM parameter forecast method provided valuable 48 hours services with an interval of 12 hours for the day of opening ceremony and 24-72 hours prediction of air-quality for subsequent events during the whole Beijing Olympic Games.It is also found that the good air qualities are associated with the traffic control measures taken by the municipal government in reducing the vehicle exhaustions during Beijing Olympic Games.The forecast verifying results of PLAM index are highly correlated with daily real time PM_(10) data collected by Beijing Weather Observatory,indicating that the PLAM index has a remarkable effect.