CAJ | 학술논문

冰盖（ICE）和AOD之间的关系对北极及全球气候有重要的影响.分析了北极巴伦支海地区（30-50°E,70-80°N）在2003—2009年的AOD和ICE的分布及其之间的耦合关系.从7年的总数据来看,AOD春天高,夏天低,秋天又有回升;南部AOD含量一般高于北部,但在75-80°N区域,2003年的AOD含量特别高;AOD和ICE在一定的区域有着带有滞后期的关系,几乎每一年的相关性都是正的.通过统计软件Eviews的滞后回归分析发现,ICE的峰值先于AOD 1个月左右.在研究区域北部,ICE和AOD在平移后的相关系数是0.51左右,而南部的相关系数是0.30左右.通过协整检验发现,ICE（-1）和AOD均为平稳序列,并且残差无单位根,故两者具有长期均衡关系.可以推断,由于海洋冰块的融化,导致相关生物硫种类的减少,从而导致AOD含量的增加.通过在70-75°N区域对AOD的结果进行平稳性检验,预测了未来两年AOD的发展趋势.
빙개（ICE）화AOD지간적관계대북겁급전구기후유중요적영향.분석료북겁파륜지해지구（30-50°E,70-80°N）재2003—2009년적AOD화ICE적분포급기지간적우합관계.종7년적총수거래간,AOD춘천고,하천저,추천우유회승;남부AOD함량일반고우북부,단재75-80°N구역,2003년적AOD함량특별고;AOD화ICE재일정적구역유착대유체후기적관계,궤호매일년적상관성도시정적.통과통계연건Eviews적체후회귀분석발현,ICE적봉치선우AOD 1개월좌우.재연구구역북부,ICE화AOD재평이후적상관계수시0.51좌우,이남부적상관계수시0.30좌우.통과협정검험발현,ICE（-1）화AOD균위평은서렬,병차잔차무단위근,고량자구유장기균형관계.가이추단,유우해양빙괴적융화,도치상관생물류충류적감소,종이도치AOD함량적증가.통과재70-75°N구역대AOD적결과진행평은성검험,예측료미래량년AOD적발전추세.
It is widely acknowledged that the frequent occurrences of extreme weather are closely related to global warming.The aerosol optical depth is the main cause of the change for the temperature.The present research region is in（30-50 °E,70-80 °N）of the Barents Sea.The distribution and coupled relation of AOD and ICE in the research region from 2003 to 2009 are analyzed.According to the integrated statistics of seven years,AOD was very high in spring,and then went down in summer,increased in the fall again.AOD was higher in south than that of the North.But in 75-80° N,AOD was particularly high in 2003.AOD and ICE have a good coupling relationship with a lag of one month（ICE was one month ahead of AOD） in the study region.Eviews is used to do regression analysis.After shifting AOD one month ahead,the correlation coefficient between ICE and AOD is about 0.5 in the northern part,while is about 0.30 in the southern part.The ice peak is a little earlier than the peak of AOD,indicating the melting of sea ice results in biological reduction of sulfur species,leading to the increase in AOD content.The AOD in smaller area（30-35°E,70-75°N） for 13 years（1998—2009） time series are also studied and the stable white noise time series is used to predict the future time series of AOD.