CAJ | 학술논문

利用常规探空资料、数值预报产品、雷达回波资料对桂林市2009年7月2～4日与25～28日2次大暴雨过程的天气形势及物理机制、雷达回波概念模型特征进行对比分析,结果表明:低涡切变是2次强降水的主要影响系统,西南风低空急流的强弱与暴雨量级有着直接关系,两者配置形成的辐合上升运动是这2次大暴雨的动力机制,辐合及上升运动越强,对应的降水强度越大;絮状强降水回波稳定维持在桂林上空与其内部风场结构上的强盛西南暖湿气流辐合有关,圆形絮状回波比长带状回波更稳定,更有利于大暴雨的形成.另外,经预报实践证明利用多种数值预报产品与桂林预报工具与指标,可对大暴雨过程的落区及量级进行较准确的预报,为灾害性大暴雨天气提供有效的预报与决策服务.
이용상규탐공자료、수치예보산품、뢰체회파자료대계림시2009년7월2～4일여25～28일2차대폭우과정적천기형세급물리궤제、뢰체회파개념모형특정진행대비분석,결과표명:저와절변시2차강강수적주요영향계통,서남풍저공급류적강약여폭우량급유착직접관계,량자배치형성적복합상승운동시저2차대폭우적동력궤제,복합급상승운동월강,대응적강수강도월대;서상강강수회파은정유지재계림상공여기내부풍장결구상적강성서남난습기류복합유관,원형서상회파비장대상회파경은정,경유리우대폭우적형성.령외,경예보실천증명이용다충수치예보산품여계림예보공구여지표,가대대폭우과정적락구급량급진행교준학적예보,위재해성대폭우천기제공유효적예보여결책복무.
Two heavy rain process weather situation, physical mechanism and radar echo characteristics were analyzed by means of conventional sounding records, numerical forecast products and radar echo data from July 2 to 4, 25 to 28 in 2009 in Guilin, Guangxi province, the results showed that low vortex shear were the main effect system to two heavy precipitations and there was a direct relationship between south-west low-level jet and the order of rainstorm magnitude, strong convergence and upward motion formed in the configuration of low vortex shear and south-west low-level jet were the dynamical mechanism in two heavy rain, the stronger the convergence and upward motion, the greater the corresponding rainfall intensity; it was relative between the stability of floccus echo of heavy precipitation over in Guilin and its the strong south-west warm air convergence in its internal wind structure, and the round floccus echo was more stable than the long strip ones, the more conducive to the formation of heavy rain. In addition, the practice had proved that the use of a variety of numerical forecast products and local forecast tools and indexes can make quite accurate forecasts to rainstorm area and magnitude, which can provide an effective weather forecasting and decision-making services.