CAJ | 학술논문

考虑到可靠性原始参数的缺乏对电力系统可靠性评估结果的真实性和有效性影响很大,用优化的GM(1,1)模型预测可靠性原始参数,开发小样本系统.优化的GM(1,1)模型在以最小二乘法优化初值的基础上,分别求取不同时间段的原始参数序列的拟合数列,再以各拟合数列与原始数列之间的模糊贴近度为权重系数对预测值进行优化加权组合.此模型既能体现数据的最新变化态势,又能体现总体发展趋势,充分挖掘原始参数包含的信息量,克服传统GM(1,1)模型预测可靠性参数随预测点推移预测精度下降较快的缺点,尤其适用于新投入元件可靠性原始参数的多点预测.
고필도가고성원시삼수적결핍대전력계통가고성평고결과적진실성화유효성영향흔대,용우화적GM(1,1)모형예측가고성원시삼수,개발소양본계통.우화적GM(1,1)모형재이최소이승법우화초치적기출상,분별구취불동시간단적원시삼수서렬적의합수렬,재이각의합수렬여원시수렬지간적모호첩근도위권중계수대예측치진행우화가권조합.차모형기능체현수거적최신변화태세,우능체현총체발전추세,충분알굴원시삼수포함적신식량,극복전통GM(1,1)모형예측가고성삼수수예측점추이예측정도하강교쾌적결점,우기괄용우신투입원건가고성원시삼수적다점예측.
As insufficient original reliability parameters greatly reduce the authenticity and effectiveness of the reliability assessment results of power systems, an optimized GM(1,1) model is used to predict original reliability parameters for the purpose of exploiting some small sample systems. In the optimized GM(1,1) model, the fitting series of the original parameter series within different time is obtained based on the optimization of the initial value using the least square method, and the fuzzy nearnesses between the original series and the fitting series are used as weight coefficients to treat the prediction values with weighted optimization. This model reflects not only the latest changes but also the overall development trend of data. Therefore, it fully exploits the information contained in ori-ginal parameters and solves the problem existing the conventional GM(1,1) model, namely the rapid decline of prediction precision with the prediction point. The proposed model is applicable to the multi-point prediction of original reliability parameters of new electricity components.