CAJ | 학술논문

故障预测技术是我国未来发展复杂系统增强型视情维修体系(CBM+)的核心技术;在分析了目前广泛使用的基于统计学的故障预测方法基础上,研究了精度更高的基于模型和基于数据驱动等多种故障预测方法,总结了不同预测方法的适用性,结合实际应用提出了一种多方法融合的复杂系统故障预测新方法,与传统的统计学预测法进行了对比,并完成了仿真验证;新方法有利于提高故障预测的准确性,为未来实现复杂系统视情维修与贮存延寿提供技术保障.
고장예측기술시아국미래발전복잡계통증강형시정유수체계(CBM+)적핵심기술;재분석료목전엄범사용적기우통계학적고장예측방법기출상,연구료정도경고적기우모형화기우수거구동등다충고장예측방법,총결료불동예측방법적괄용성,결합실제응용제출료일충다방법융합적복잡계통고장예측신방법,여전통적통계학예측법진행료대비,병완성료방진험증;신방법유리우제고고장예측적준학성,위미래실현복잡계통시정유수여저존연수제공기술보장.
The Fault prognostic technique of Complex system is the core of the future CBM+. This paper analyzes the current statistical based fault prognostic method, studies a more precise fault prognostic approach based on model, data driving, etc, puts forward a multi-method fused new fault prognostic method for complex system, and contrasts to the traditional statistical prognostic method. Finally the sim-ulation is used to prove the effectiveness of the method advanced on this paper.