CAJ | 학술논문

以存款总额、贷款总额、储蓄存款、企业存款、银行贷款、收入、利率、CPI为变量,依据变量之间的经济关系,构建6组VAR模型,考察存贷款派生关系以及与其他影响因素之间的关系,并且进一步利用协整分析、误差修正模型、景气分析方法考察上述不同组经济变量之间的影响方向、时滞和力度.实证分析结果显示存贷款之间具有派生关系,但是不同存贷款科目的派生过程各有不同.特别地,存款是贷款的先行指标,存贷款之间的增长拐点大概有9-12个月的时滞.存款是指标组中影响贷款最重要的指标,但是贷款不是影响存款最重要的指标.贷款转化成存款的速度很快,但是存款转化成贷款需要一个过程.除了存贷款之间的相互影响外,CPI、收入对存款有影响,CPI对贷款有影响,但是名义利率对存款和贷款没有显著影响.
이존관총액、대관총액、저축존관、기업존관、은행대관、수입、리솔、CPI위변량,의거변량지간적경제관계,구건6조VAR모형,고찰존대관파생관계이급여기타영향인소지간적관계,병차진일보이용협정분석、오차수정모형、경기분석방법고찰상술불동조경제변량지간적영향방향、시체화력도.실증분석결과현시존대관지간구유파생관계,단시불동존대관과목적파생과정각유불동.특별지,존관시대관적선행지표,존대관지간적증장괴점대개유9-12개월적시체.존관시지표조중영향대관최중요적지표,단시대관불시영향존관최중요적지표.대관전화성존관적속도흔쾌,단시존관전화성대관수요일개과정.제료존대관지간적상호영향외,CPI、수입대존관유영향,CPI대대관유영향,단시명의리솔대존관화대관몰유현저영향.
The dynamic relations between deposits and loans in China are investigated by means of vector autoregressive models, cointegration analysis, vector error correction models, business cyclical analysis method. The empirical results show that the deposits and the loans affect each other, but infleuencing degrees between them are different. Particularly, the deposits are the leading indicators of the loans, and the turning point of the deposits is earlier for 9-12 months than that of loan. Deposits is the most important factor for the loans, but loans is not the most important factor for the deposits. Moreover, CPI and the income are two influencing factor for the deposits, CPI is an influencing factor for the loans, but nominal interest rate has no significant influence on both the deposits and the loans.