CAJ | 학술논문

水产养殖过程中面临诸多的风险，为了量化水产养殖风险中的影响因素，评估风险等级，有效规避风险，以山东地区大菱鲆工厂化养殖为例，从自然、市场、操作和政策4个方面，运用层次分析法，建立风险评价指标体系，通过问卷调查的方式，基于专家调查法，对各风险因素的影响程度打分，分析和反馈专家意见，整理和分析获得的数据资料。结果表明：当前大菱鲆工厂化养殖风险为BB等级，养殖风险较高，其中市场价格的风险影响最大，饲料价格、病害和环境污染成为较严重的风险因素。最后，分别从养殖单位、政府机构以及水产养殖行业三方面提出相应的措施建议。面对养殖中危害较大的自然风险和市场风险，对于大菱鲆养殖户而言，把握市场行情，通过多种渠道获得市场供求信息而做出生产销售决策，可以有效避免市场价格波动带来的损失。从政府层面来看，可以通过推动水产养殖政策性保险的实施，及时发布市场供求信息，合理规划养殖规模，控制养殖产量，有效降低风险给养殖单位带来的损害。从海水养殖行业角度看，环境污染、病害以及持续上涨的饲料价格成为养殖行业普遍存在的隐患。海水养殖行业需以技术更新为重任，从养殖生产技术、疫苗防治、鱼粉替代品研发等方面，全面提高水产养殖技术，规避行业面临的养殖风险。
수산양식과정중면림제다적풍험，위료양화수산양식풍험중적영향인소，평고풍험등급，유효규피풍험，이산동지구대릉평공엄화양식위례，종자연、시장、조작화정책4개방면，운용층차분석법，건립풍험평개지표체계，통과문권조사적방식，기우전가조사법，대각풍험인소적영향정도타분，분석화반궤전가의견，정리화분석획득적수거자료。결과표명：당전대릉평공엄화양식풍험위BB등급，양식풍험교고，기중시장개격적풍험영향최대，사료개격、병해화배경오염성위교엄중적풍험인소。최후，분별종양식단위、정부궤구이급수산양식행업삼방면제출상응적조시건의。면대양식중위해교대적자연풍험화시장풍험，대우대릉평양식호이언，파악시장행정，통과다충거도획득시장공구신식이주출생산소수결책，가이유효피면시장개격파동대래적손실。종정부층면래간，가이통과추동수산양식정책성보험적실시，급시발포시장공구신식，합리규화양식규모，공제양식산량，유효강저풍험급양식단위대래적손해。종해수양식행업각도간，배경오염、병해이급지속상창적사료개격성위양식행업보편존재적은환。해수양식행업수이기술경신위중임，종양식생산기술、역묘방치、어분체대품연발등방면，전면제고수산양식기술，규피행업면림적양식풍험。
To quantify the influencing factors of aquaculture risk,assess the level of risk, and avoid risk effectively, factory farm of turbot farming was taken as example. In terms of nature environment, market, operation and policy,the evaluation indicators of risk analysis was built applying the method of AHP, and analyzed the data from questionnaire survey. It turned out that the level of turbot factory farming was BB,and the biggest influence factor was the price of the production,while the price of feed,diseases and the pollution from the en- vironment were als0 the serious aspects. In the end, some proposals in views of aquatic farmers, government and aquaculture industry were given. Facing the huge risks from nature and market, farmers need to hold to the market,and to gain market supply and demand information through various channels and to make production sales decisions which could effectively avoid the loss of market price fluctuations. From the government aspect, propelling through the implementation of aquaculture policy-related insurance,timely releasing market supply and demand information,and rational planning of breeding scale, controlling breeding production could reduce the risk to breeding unit brings damage. From the perspective of seawater aquaculture industry, environment pollution, disease and rising feed prices become breeding industry widespread hidden trouble. Mariculture indus- try need to update technology from breeding for task, and enhance the research in the respect of production technology,vaccines prevention and fishmeal＇s substitutes to evade aquaculture technology risk of breeding from the industry.