CAJ | 학술논문

利用互联网数据,在合理假设的前提下,给出了上海世博会对上海旅游业影响的定量评估.利用线性加权综合分析法建立综合评价指标的线性模型,并从两个不同的角度,分别得出上海世博会对上海旅游业的综合评价指标,同时建立灰色系统预测模型,利用2006至2009年的评价指标,对2010年的评价指标进行预测.通过实际的增长值与预测增长值的比较来衡量影响力.最后,针对求解出的一系列数据,进行了定性分析,并对旅游局提出了几点合理性建议.
이용호련망수거,재합리가설적전제하,급출료상해세박회대상해여유업영향적정량평고.이용선성가권종합분석법건립종합평개지표적선성모형,병종량개불동적각도,분별득출상해세박회대상해여유업적종합평개지표,동시건립회색계통예측모형,이용2006지2009년적평개지표,대2010년적평개지표진행예측.통과실제적증장치여예측증장치적비교래형량영향력.최후,침대구해출적일계렬수거,진행료정성분석,병대여유국제출료궤점합이성건의.
This article provided a quantitative assessment of how the Shang-hai Expo influence the Shanghai tourism with a reasonable assumption.The data used in this article is from the internet.The mothed used is linear weighting comprehensive analysis method.Researchers get the a comprehensiveevaluation of the Shanghai tourism given by the Shanghai Expo separately by two different way.They established a grey model,and using the evalua-tion standard from 2006 to 2009 to predict the evaluation standard of 2010.This article try to measure the influence by both the actual growth and the predicted growth.Finally,researchers provided the qualitative analysis and some advice to the tourism administration.