CAJ | 학술논문

为了支持短时临近预报,利用新一代数值预报技术,结合高时空分辨的新一代探测所提供的观测信息,开发了基于快速更新循环同化的数值预报系统.基于GRAPES预报模式及其三维变分,开发了逐时循环同化,包括雷达、卫星、飞机、常规地面和探空等观测资料的同化模块,并采用nudging技术,引入雷达回波,订正模式的初始云水、雨水等信息,实现快速更新预报.多种测试和汛期连续试验表明,系统运行稳定可靠.逐时同化场合理,与实况基本一致.通过1个月的滚动预报综合分析和个例预报分析均表明,预报稳定有效,与观测分布基本一致,初步具备开展短时临近预报的能力.
위료지지단시림근예보,이용신일대수치예보기술,결합고시공분변적신일대탐측소제공적관측신식,개발료기우쾌속경신순배동화적수치예보계통.기우GRAPES예보모식급기삼유변분,개발료축시순배동화,포괄뢰체、위성、비궤、상규지면화탐공등관측자료적동화모괴,병채용nudging기술,인입뢰체회파,정정모식적초시운수、우수등신식,실현쾌속경신예보.다충측시화신기련속시험표명,계통운행은정가고.축시동화장합리,여실황기본일치.통과1개월적곤동예보종합분석화개례예보분석균표명,예보은정유효,여관측분포기본일치,초보구비개전단시림근예보적능력.
In order to support short-term nowcasting, a new generation of numerical prediction techniques (such as the latest developments of GRAPES model and its three-dimensional variational assimilation) is used, together with observations provided by new-generation means that are highly resolved both temporally and spatially, to develop a rapid updating cycle assimilation and forecasting system. The system provides hourly assimilations of radars, satellites, aircraft, conventional surface observations and soundings; the rapid updating forecasting can be achieved through nudging, revision of the initial cloud water mixing ratio, correction of rain water mixing ratio and other information and introducing radar echoes. A variety of tests and consecutive seasonal experiments show that the system is stable and reliable. Analysis showed that the assimilation result, situation forecasting, and precipitation forecasting from the system are basically consistent with corresponding observations, indicating that the system has short-term nowcasting capabilities.