CAJ | 학술논문

利用常规高空、地面观测资料和14时订正后的探空资料,分析2008—2010年6月河南处于东北低涡槽后形势下其强对流天气的相关物理量特征和阈值,通过对其中3次致灾强风暴过程的天气学特征进行综合分析,归纳出其三维天气系统要素配置和预报着眼点。结果表明：1）SI、LI均为负值,K指数≥20℃,△θse850-500≥5℃,CAPE≥1 500 J.kg-1,Sweat指数≥180,0—6 km水平风垂直切变≥15 m.s-1,大气可降水量≥2 cm,可作为发生灾害性强对流天气的参考指标;SI为正值,LI≥-1.5℃,K指数≤24℃,△θse850-500≤-4.3℃,CAPE≤150 J.kg-1且远小于CIN、14时探空订正后CAPE也在500 J.kg-1以下,0—6 km垂直风切变≤12 m.s-1,可降水量≤1.5 cm,可作为无对流天气出现的参考指标;除此之外,可出现一般雷暴天气。2）东北低涡槽后型背景下,河南出现强对流天气的热力不稳定条件是,中上层干冷,有24 h显著降温区或冷槽、冷平流;低层暖,850 hPa温度达到20℃,或有低空急流或显著流线通过暖脊。3）其抬升触发条件是,中层有横槽、切变线、干线,地面有辐合线、干线等有触发和抬升作用的系统。4）其水汽条件是,850 hPa比湿≥7 g.kg-1,地面露点温度达16℃以上。5）垂直风切变条件是,存在高空西北风急流,低层偏南风,地面偏东风。
이용상규고공、지면관측자료화14시정정후적탐공자료,분석2008—2010년6월하남처우동북저와조후형세하기강대류천기적상관물리량특정화역치,통과대기중3차치재강풍폭과정적천기학특정진행종합분석,귀납출기삼유천기계통요소배치화예보착안점。결과표명：1）SI、LI균위부치,K지수≥20℃,△θse850-500≥5℃,CAPE≥1 500 J.kg-1,Sweat지수≥180,0—6 km수평풍수직절변≥15 m.s-1,대기가강수량≥2 cm,가작위발생재해성강대류천기적삼고지표;SI위정치,LI≥-1.5℃,K지수≤24℃,△θse850-500≤-4.3℃,CAPE≤150 J.kg-1차원소우CIN、14시탐공정정후CAPE야재500 J.kg-1이하,0—6 km수직풍절변≤12 m.s-1,가강수량≤1.5 cm,가작위무대류천기출현적삼고지표;제차지외,가출현일반뇌폭천기。2）동북저와조후형배경하,하남출현강대류천기적열력불은정조건시,중상층간랭,유24 h현저강온구혹랭조、랭평류;저층난,850 hPa온도체도20℃,혹유저공급류혹현저류선통과난척。3）기태승촉발조건시,중층유횡조、절변선、간선,지면유복합선、간선등유촉발화태승작용적계통。4）기수기조건시,850 hPa비습≥7 g.kg-1,지면로점온도체16℃이상。5）수직풍절변조건시,존재고공서북풍급류,저층편남풍,지면편동풍。
The routine upper-air and surface observations and the revised sounding data at 14：00 were used to analyze physical quantity features and thresholds of the severe convective weather from 2008 to June 2010 when Henan was in the situation of Northeast vortex and the northwest airflow at the back of vortex trough,also analyze the synoptic features of the three strong storm events which resulted in hazard,and induce the element configuration of three dimensional weather system and forecast starting points for the three strong storm events.The results show that the fact with the following elements such as SI and LI are both negative values,K≥20 ℃,△θse850-500≥5 ℃,CAPE≥1500 J·kg-1,Sweat index ≥180,vertical wind shear from 0 to 6 km ≥15 m·s-1 and PW≥2 cm can be taken for reference index for disastrous severe convective weather.And the fact with the following elements such as SI is positive value,LI≥-1.5 ℃,K≤24 ℃,△θse850-500≤-4.3 ℃,CAPE≤150 J·kg-1 and is far less than CIN（revised CAPE at 14：00 is less than 500 J·kg-1）,vertical wind shear from 0 to 6 km ≤12 m·s-1 and PW≤1.5 cm can be regarded as reference index for non-convective weather.Except the facts described above,general thunderstorm weathers could be happened.In the situation of Northeast vortex and the back of trough,the thermal instability conditions causing severe convective weather in Henan are the dry and cold air in the mid-and-upper level,a significant cooling zone in 24 hours（or cold trough,or cold advection）,warm air in the low level,20 ℃ in temperature at 850 hPa（or a low-level jet or a significant streamline passing through the warm ridge）.The triggering conditions of air uplifting are zonal trough,shear and dry line in the middle level,convergence line and dry line etc.in ground layer.The water vapor conditions causing severe convective weather in Henan are that specific humidity ≥7 J·kg-1 at 850 hPa and dew point temperature is above 16 ℃ in the ground layer.The conditions on vertical wind shear are northwesterly upper-level jet,southerly wind in the lower-level and easterly wind in ground layer.