CAJ | 학술논문

目的用德尔菲(Delphi)法征求专家意见,构建肾综合征出血热流行的预警指标体系.方法通过文献检索和专家会议法初步拟定该病流行预警指标的初始框架和预警指标,对来自全国14个省(市)、自治区的25名专家进行两轮咨询,根据指标重要性的均值大小筛选指标,权重得分的均值大小确定其权重,并用权重法确定指标的相对重要程度.结果专家从事肾综合征出血热防控工作的平均年限为(23.80±11.70)年,两轮咨询专家的积极系数分别为100%和72%.两轮咨询Kendall协调系数分别为0.50(x2R=148.95,P＜0.01)和0.54(x2R=212.63,P＜0.01),具有统计学意义,可认为全部专家对整个评价指标意见趋于一致,咨询已经满足预测的要求;肾综合征出血热预警指标体系共包括4个一级指标(宿主动物、高危人群、社会环境和病例指标)和14个二级指标,4个一级指标的权重系数分别是0.28、0.23、0.23和0.26.结论初步建立了肾综合征出血热流行预警指标体系,可对该病的预测、预警工作提供参考.
목적 용덕이비(Delphi)법정구전가의견,구건신종합정출혈열류행적예경지표체계.방법 통과문헌검색화전가회의법초보의정해병류행예경지표적초시광가화예경지표,대래자전국14개성(시)、자치구적25명전가진행량륜자순,근거지표중요성적균치대소사선지표,권중득분적균치대소학정기권중,병용권중법학정지표적상대중요정도.결과 전가종사신종합정출혈열방공공작적평균년한위(23.80±11.70)년,량륜자순전가적적겁계수분별위100%화72%.량륜자순Kendall협조계수분별위0.50(x2R=148.95,P＜0.01)화0.54(x2R=212.63,P＜0.01),구유통계학의의,가인위전부전가대정개평개지표의견추우일치,자순이경만족예측적요구;신종합정출혈열예경지표체계공포괄4개일급지표(숙주동물、고위인군、사회배경화병례지표)화14개이급지표,4개일급지표적권중계수분별시0.28、0.23、0.23화0.26.결론 초보건립료신종합정출혈열류행예경지표체계,가대해병적예측、예경공작제공삼고.
Objective To establish an early-warning indicator system on outbreak of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome by Delphi method seeking expert advices. Methods Firstly,the literature review and the experts meeting method were used to formulate the initiatory frame work and indicators. A two-round consultation was used to filter indicators, discuss the boundary of indicators and determine the weighting coefficient among 25 experts from 14 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. The relative weightiness of indicators was determined by the weight coefficients method. Results The experts' average length of service in prevention and control of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome was (23.80 ± 11.70) years. The positivity coefficients of the two-round experts were 100% and 72%. Kendall's coefficients of the two-round consultation were 0. 50 ( x2R = 148.95, P ＜ 0. 01 ) and 0. 54 ( x2R = 212. 63, P ＜ 0. 01 ) andopinions among experts became consistent and the consultation had achieved the need of forecast. Four firstclgss indicators (host animals, risk population, social environment and case-related indicators) and 14 second-class indicators were filtered to develop the indicators system. The weight coefficients of the first-class indicators were 0. 28,0. 23,0. 23 and 0. 26. Conclusion The early-warning index system of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome has been established and it could provide a reference for the forest and warning of HFRS outbreak.