CAJ | 학술논문

山体滑坡、崩塌、泥石流等地质灾害主要由强降水或连续性降水引发产生,根据最近七年来宁波市国土资源局和宁波市气象台联合制作的地质灾害气象预报预警和地质灾害实况资料分析,结果发现：在最近七年里出现的159处地质灾害中,由热带气旋强降水引发的地质灾害有142处,约占89%;宁波市绝大多数地质灾害是由强降水引发,而强降水中又以热带气旋强降水为主要诱因,引发宁波市地质灾害的有效雨量大多数在100mm以上,因此,100mm有效雨量可作为预报引发宁波市地质灾害的雨量阈值,而200mm有效雨量可引发多处地质灾害产生。统计结果为以后地质灾害气象预报预警及强降水的临近监测提供参考依据。
산체활파、붕탑、니석류등지질재해주요유강강수혹련속성강수인발산생,근거최근칠년래저파시국토자원국화저파시기상태연합제작적지질재해기상예보예경화지질재해실황자료분석,결과발현：재최근칠년리출현적159처지질재해중,유열대기선강강수인발적지질재해유142처,약점89%;저파시절대다수지질재해시유강강수인발,이강강수중우이열대기선강강수위주요유인,인발저파시지질재해적유효우량대다수재100mm이상,인차,100mm유효우량가작위예보인발저파시지질재해적우량역치,이200mm유효우량가인발다처지질재해산생。통계결과위이후지질재해기상예보예경급강강수적림근감측제공삼고의거。
Geological disasters,such as landslides,collapses,mud-rock flows and so on,are mainly caused by heavy or continuous precipitations.Based on disaster warnings and practical cases issued by Ningbo Meteorological Observatory and Ningbo Municipal Bureau of national land and resources over the last 7 years across Ningbo city,analysis is done and results show： out of the total 159 cases,142 geological disasters were caused by tropical cyclones,taking a percentage around 89%.Most geological disasters in Ningbo were caused by heavy downpours,while tropical cyclone rainfalls were blamed for the main reason.Rainfall amount associated with geological disasters is above 100mm,which can be set as a rainfall threshold relating to natural disasters in Ningbo,whereas rainfall amount over 200mm can lead to multi geologic hazards.The statistics can be as reference for geological disaster warnings and now-casting rainfall monitoring.