CAJ | 학술논문

通过聚类分析，可将沿江棉区历年棉铃虫世代间的增殖状况划分为4类，相应的主害代第4代棉铃虫的发生类型依次属于迟发适生型、早发暴发型、基数一天气制约型和基数制约型。分析各类成因发现，3代基数是影响4代发生量的主要因子。运用逐步回归分析，组建了4代棉铃虫发生期和发生量的预测模型。
통과취류분석，가장연강면구력년면령충세대간적증식상황화분위4류，상응적주해대제4대면령충적발생류형의차속우지발괄생형、조발폭발형、기수일천기제약형화기수제약형。분석각류성인발현，3대기수시영향4대발생량적주요인자。운용축보회귀분석，조건료4대면령충발생기화발생량적예측모형。
The status of multiplication between generations of cotton bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera,could be classified to four types in Yanjiang area by clustering analysis. Correspondingly, the occur rence of the 4th generation was in the following types :the late and eugonic type, the early and outbreak type, the radix- and weather-restricted type and the radix-restricted type, respectively. It was found that the radix of the 3rd generation was the principal factor that affected the degree of occurrence of the 4th generation after analyzing the causes of formation of each type. The forecasting models of the 4th generation of cotton bollworm had been formed by means of stepwise regression analysis.