CAJ | 학술논문

基于全疆8条代表性河流近50年的地表径流、气温和降水数据,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验和突变检测法,对各条河流地表径流、年均气温和年降水进行了长期趋势检验和突变滗分析,同时对径流与气温、降水之间的变化关系以及水文极端事件洪水的发生频次和洪峰流量进行了分析.结果表明,20世纪80年代中期以来伞疆各地气候一致表现为气温升高和降水增多,其中北疆地区变化最为显著,南疆其次,东疆最小.受气温、降水变化影响,河流径流发生年际和年内分布变化.大部分河流自20世纪90年代初水量显著增多,有春汛提前、夏汛推后和洪峰流量增大的现象,其变化特征与河流补给类型密切相关.全疆洪水发生频次增多、洪峰流最增大.气候变暖已对区域水文循环产生重要影响.
기우전강8조대표성하류근50년적지표경류、기온화강수수거,채용Mann-Kendall추세검험화돌변검측법,대각조하류지표경류、년균기온화년강수진행료장기추세검험화돌변필분석,동시대경류여기온、강수지간적변화관계이급수문겁단사건홍수적발생빈차화홍봉류량진행료분석.결과표명,20세기80년대중기이래산강각지기후일치표현위기온승고화강수증다,기중북강지구변화최위현저,남강기차,동강최소.수기온、강수변화영향,하류경류발생년제화년내분포변화.대부분하류자20세기90년대초수량현저증다,유춘신제전、하신추후화홍봉류량증대적현상,기변화특정여하류보급류형밀절상관.전강홍수발생빈차증다、홍봉류최증대.기후변난이대구역수문순배산생중요영향.
Based on the surface runoff, temperature and precipitation data over the last 50 years from eight representative rivers in Xinjiang, this paper, using the method of Mann-Kendall trend and jump detection, investigated the long-term trend and jump point of time series of surface runoff, mean annual temperature and annual precipitation. Besides, this paper analyzed the relationship between runoff and temperature and precipitation, and the frequency and peak flow of floods. Results showed that all parts of Xinjiang had experienced an increase in temperature and precipitation since the mid-1980s. Northern Xinjiang is the area that saw greatest change, followed by southern Xinjiang and eastern Xinjiang. Affected by temperature and precipitation variations, river runoff had both inter-annual and inner-annual changes. The surface runoff of most rivers had increased significantly since the early 1990s. And some of them had the phenomena of spring floods appearing ahead of time, summer floods lagging behind and flood peaks increasing. The variation characteristics were closely related with the replenishment types of rivers. The flood frequency and peak flow increased all over the Xinjiang region. Climate warming has had an effect on the regional hydrological cycle.